YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 30. 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are higher so far this morning. Stocks are taking a breather and the money from Stocks looks to be moving back into Bonds, helping prices move higher.

The Bond has been able to move higher this week in spite of the so-so auction results. But this afternoon’s auction of $32 Billion of 7-Year Notes carries more inflation risk to investors due to the longer maturity date. So I will be watching to see how the market reacts to the auction.

For now, I recommend floating to see if prices can build on the positive technical momentum, and potentially climb back up towards the next ceiling of resistance. If anything changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 12/21-12/24, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope you had a terrific Christmas and are enjoying all the festivities that this time of year brings. Here's a look back at what happened in the markets.

It felt more like Groundhog Day than Christmas last week. Continued selling in Treasuries pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to yet another four-month high. It closed at 3.80% on Thursday. This has everyone talking about the yield curve (the difference between the yield on the 2-year and 10-year notes). On Tuesday it hit a record high, indicating to many that economic recovery is on the way. Investors are deserting the safety of government debt and heading for riskier Wall Street investments.

Treasuries are headed for their worst monthly performance since January, and could be hit by further losses next week. Traders and analysts are already fretting over a $118 billion in notes going on the auction block at a time when extremely light trading could kill demand for government debt. Treasuries got pounded last week, in spite of a mixed bag of economic reports that began with a big increase in existing home sales for November. Sales rose 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units. Analysts, however, attributed some of the increase to first-time buyers who wanted to cash in on the tax credit, thinking it would expire at the end of the month.
The final revision of 3rd quarter GDP was more bond-friendly. Economic growth was revised downward to 2.2% from 2.8%. The initial report showed growth of 3.5%. Less spending on business investments and consumer services like health care dragged the GDP down.

A couple of weak reports on Wednesday gave bonds their only plus day of the week -- and the gain was small. New home sales in November plunged 11.3% to an annual rate of 355,000 units, the lowest since April and far below a prediction of 421,000 units. But inventory dropped to 7.9 months.

The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey for December also came in below expectations. It fell to 72.5 from 73.8 two weeks previous, but it rose during the month from the November end index of 67.4.

Personal income in November rose 0.4% -- the best since April -- thanks to an increase in worker compensation. Spending rose 0.2% -- less than the 0.4% October increase. The core PCE, a key inflation gauge, came in at 0%, falling from 0.2% in October. This provided some good news for bond traders that fear inflation will rob fixed rate assets of value over time.
The final reports for the week didn't support Treasuries. First-time unemployment claims fell by 28,000 to 452,000 for the week ended Dec. 19. The four-week moving average also fell to 465,250. And continuing claims -- those collecting benefits for more than one week -- dropped to 5.076 million.

Orders for durable goods, big ticket items meant to last for more than three years, rose 0.2%. Excluding autos, orders were up 2.0% -- both beating October totals but falling short of analysts' expectations. During the week ended Dec. 18 it appears that more people were shopping for gifts than for mortgages. In spite of attractive rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications fell 11.6% and refinances were down 10.1%.

This last week of the year will feature light trading and few economic indicators, although there are a couple that could influence the markets. Probably the most influential of the reports is Tuesday's consumer confidence index for December, as reported by the Conference Board. Economists predict it will rise to 53.7 from 49.5 in November. This would put pressure on Treasuries, as spending consumers would likely push the economy forward.

The Case/Shiller report on housing prices in the nation's 20 largest cities generally has little impact on Treasuries, although Wall Street often reacts. It's expected to show October prices down 7.45% -- better than the 9.36% decline in September. Wednesday brings the Chicago Purchasing Managers Institute (PMI) index of December manufacturing conditions in the area. While it's expected to edge down to 55.6 from 56.1, any number above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The year wraps up with first-time unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 26. Analysts expect the number to edge down to 450,000 from 452,000, which would not have much impact on the markets.

I hope that you have a terrific week. Enjoy the last days of 2009! If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 12/14-12/18 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Monday is off to a terrific start. It was another tough week for Treasuries. Mostly positive economic reports spurred selling in bonds, as traders continued to worry about an early rate. Selling sent the yield on the benchmark 10-yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, to 3.59% -- its highest level since mid-August.

Tuesday's producer price index for November didn't sit well with traders. It rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.8%. Energy prices accounted for three-quarters of the increase, opening the door for future inflation. And the core, which eliminates food and energy prices, rose 0.5% due to the higher cost of trucks and cigarettes.

Industrial production beat expectations, rising 0.8% -- the biggest increase since August. It remains down 5.1% over the past year. But the Empire State index of December manufacturing conditions plunged to 2.55 from 23.51 when 22 was expected.

On Wednesday the consumer price index, which measures retail inflation, calmed inflation anxiety. It rose 0.4% in November and the core was unchanged from October. But once again there were signs that the housing market is recovering. Building permits in November rose to an annual rate of 584,000 from 551,000, while housing starts jumped by 47,000 to an annual rate of 574,000 units.

That afternoon the Federal Reserve once again said that interest rates will be "exceptionally low" for an "extended period of time." It did note, however, that although economic conditions will remain weak, they are stabilizing, with housing and consumer spending on the rise. It noted that the labor market and businesses continue to struggle. In the end, there was little reaction from the financial markets.

Not so on Thursday. First-time unemployment claims for the week ended Dec.12 rose by 7,000 to 480,000, while the more-accurate four-week average fell for the 15th straight week. Continued claims, those collecting benefits for more than one week, also rose to 5.186 million.

Two strong reports followed: leading economic indicators, or LEI, and the Philly Fed index of December manufacturing conditions. LEI rose 0.9%, and for the first time since December 2007 employment did not negatively impact the index. The Philly Fed jumped to 20.4, its highest level since April 2005. These reports spurred selling in bonds.

But the rise in initial claims, another credit downgrade for Greece and the Fed's cautious outlook for economic recovering prompted a big sell-off on Wall Street and the flight to quality was on. The 10-year yield fell below 3.50% for the first time in a week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications to refinance rose 0.9% for the week ended Dec. 12, and accounted for 75.2% of all mortgages -- the highest percentage since April 24. Purchase apps edged down 0.1%.

This week features another three-day release calendar, but big moves are not on the radar. And trading should be light.

Tuesday's first report is the final 3rd quarter revision of GDP. Analysts expect growth to come in at 2.7% -- down a hair from the previous 2.8% revision. GDP prices are expected to show a 0.5% increase, which would be unchanged.

Existing home sales for November are expected to support the theory of a housing market rebound. Sales should rise to an annual rate of 6.30 million units, up from 6.10 million.

Wednesday's report on new home sales for November should follow suit. Sales are expected to rise by 10,000 units to an annual rate of 440,000.

Personal income for November is predicted to rise 0.5% from the previous 0.2% increase. However, personal spending should rise 0.7%, the same as in October.

Separately, the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey for December is expected to climb to 73.9 from 73.4. Two weeks ago the index shocked traders when it rose 6 points, sending Treasury prices tumbling.

Thursday's initial claims report for the week ended Dec. 19 could sway Treasuries if it shows another big increase in initial claims. Or not.

The final report, durable goods orders for November, is predicted to improve from October. Orders are forecast to rise 0.4% versus a 0.6% decline, while orders, excluding transportation, should increase 1.0% -- far better than the previous1.3% decline.

I hope you have a terrific week. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 17, 2009

Good Afternoon,


Mortgage Bonds started the day sharply higher after Initial Jobless Claims rose higher than expected. Upon hearing the news, investors shifted money from Stocks to Bonds--which helped Mortgage Bonds improve dramatically

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reiterated that its Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will end in March as scheduled.

For now, I recommend floating to see if Bonds can gain some additional ground before facing a ceiling of resistance at the 50-day Moving Average. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. Have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 16, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that your are having a terrific day so far. Today at 2:15pm ET, the Federal Reserve will release their Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement. The Fed isn’t expected to change the Fed Funds Rate, but the statement could influence the markets. If the Fed reaffirms that rates will remain low for an extended period, Bonds could see a nice move higher.

In other news, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported in line with expectations, signaling that inflation remains low for now. Housing Starts for November were also in line with estimates while Building Permits, which are a leading indicator of housing construction, reached the highest level seen in the past year.

Bonds are attempting to remain above a key support level. I recommend floating but I will let you know if the Fed’s statement or other news of the day requires a change of course. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 14, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that this note finds you well and that your week is off to a terrific start already.

In the markets today, Bonds are starting the week near unchanged and attempting to stabilize after a couple weeks of price losses. There are no economic reports due for release today, but the rest of the week is loaded up with reports, including the Fed Meeting and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday.

In other news, the House of Representatives passed the HR 4173 bill on Friday, otherwise known as the Wall Street Reform Act and Consumer Protection Act. The bill will now be voted on by the Senate. If it passes as is, it could have a big impact on inflation and interest rates in the future.

I recommend floating for now as Bonds approach a key ceiling of resistance. I'll let you know if we need to change course. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your Monday. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Letter to Clients, December 2009

I hope that this note finds you well and enjoying a truly rewarding holiday season so far this year. As we approach the end of 2009 and look towards 2010, I wanted to take just a moment to reach out to you as your trusted mortgage advisor and let you know of a potential extra tax deductible incentive available to you, if you happen to itemize your deductions on your tax return. That incentive is to pay your mortgage payment for January 2010 so that it is received by our office on, or prior to, 12/31/2009.

As you may recall, the mortgage payment due for January 2010 would include interest for the month of December 2009, as mortgage interest is always paid one month in arrears. By paying it this year, you'll have 13 months' worth of mortgage interest to write off for calendar year 2009. You can apply this same prepayment opportunity with a vacation or second home too. Many clients have used this opportunity to pay extra to another creditor in January, since the mortgage payment has already been made for the month. Whatever choice you make, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of this option. I really appreciated the opportunity to partner with you on our mortgage and this is just yet another way that I will say “thank you” for allowing me to be of help to you.

As always, if you have any questions about this email, or just want to say "Hello", I'm always here to serve you. Thanks again for your loyal business and referrals. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know. In the meantime, here’s to a terrific 2010 for you.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 1, 2009

Good Morning,

Happy December! Here's hoping that the month is off to a terrific start for you.

In the markets today, Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower this morning, while Stocks have moved higher.

In other news, the Pending Home Sales report came in better than expected, and the Institute of Supply Manager's Index was reported slightly lower than expected. Thus far, the reports have not impacted Bonds.

Currently, Bond prices remain overbought, as they have for the past few weeks. I recommend floating for now to see how prices behave near the current ceiling of resistance, but be prepared to lock if they move lower. If circumstances warrant a change of course, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you have a great rest of your day ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was -- 11/23-11/27, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a terrific Thanksgiving Holiday. Here's a look back at what happened in the markets last week and a look ahead to this week's newsmakers that could move the markets.

U.S. Treasuries had another good week, in spite of some positive economic news. But buying turned fierce early Friday when Dubai World, that country's financial arm that is responsible for funding the massive construction efforts in that country, said it may have to postpone meeting its $60 billion worth of financial obligations. Asian markets tumbled, and money headed to the safe haven of Treasuries, sending the 10-year note yield, which moves inversely to price, tumbling to its lowest level since June. Occurrences such as this, however, are generally a temporary reaction to a monetary crisis.

The week began on an up note, with existing home sales in October rising 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million units -- the most since February 2007. This put pressure on Treasuries, but they rebounded when St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said the Fed should continue its stimulus programs beyond current plans.

Tuesday's report on preliminary 3rd quarter GDP also boosted Treasuries, as it was revised downward to 2.8% growth from 3.5%, due to weakness in consumer spending. Traders weren't bothered by a rise in consumer confidence in November which climbed to 49.5 from 48.7.

Wednesday was the big day for reports, starting with first-time jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 21. They fell to 466,000 -- the first time below 500,000 in more than a year. Continued claims also came in at a lower-than-expected 5.42 million. In addition, the final consumer sentiment survey for November from the University of Michigan rose to 67.4 from 66.
New home sales rose 6.2% in October, boosted by a 23.2% increase in the south. The annual rate jumped to 430,000 units, supply fell to 6.7 months and the median price rose to $212,200 -- $1,000 below last year. Another report showed personal spending up 0.6% in October, while disposable income rose 0.2%. Separately, October durables goods orders for October came in below expectations -- down 0.6% and down 1.3% when transportation was excluded.

Although the durable goods report was the only bond-friendly report of the five, a record auction of 7-year notes rallied Treasuries in the afternoon, sending the 10-year yield plunging. Strong auctions on Monday and Tuesday also resulted in heavy demand for bonds on those days.

Despite low mortgage rates, applications for refinancing fell for the week ended Nov. 20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refis were off 9.5%, while purchase applications rose 9.6%.

This week could be a good one for bonds, if economists' expectations hold up -- until Friday, that is. The November employment report could undo previous gains. Economists are expecting job losses to fall to 120,000 from 190,000 in October, the fewest since October 2008. This would typically prompt selling in Treasuries, as traders will likely worry that economic recovery and rate hikes could come sooner than expected.

This week begins with Today's Chicago PMI index on November manufacturing conditions, which are expected to fall to 53 from 54.2. This decline could be reinforced Tomorrow by the ISM index of national manufacturing conditions. It's predicted to fall to 54.8 from 55.7. These numbers would support bonds, as recovery in manufacturing is key to an economic turnaround. Separately, construction spending in October is expected to tumble -0.4% from the previous 0.8% increase.

The Fed's beige book, due Wednesday, has market-moving potential. If it shows signs of economic recovery in most of the nation's 12 federal districts, that could spur selling in bonds. Indications of economic weakness, however, would have the opposite effect.

First-time unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 28 are expected to rise to 483,000 from 466,000, while continuing claims should increase to 5.54 million from 5.42 million. This could prop up buying in Treasuries.

The other reports due generally have less impact. The ISM index on the service sector should edge up to 51.4 from 50.6. And revised productivity in the 3rd quarter is expected to decline to 8.5% from the previous 9.5% reading.

In addition to Friday's employment report, factory orders for October will be released. They are expected to show a 0.2% gain. While still positive, this is far lower than the previous 0.9% increase.

I hope that you have a great week ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Special Letter to Clients

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a fabulous Thanksgiving weekend with Family and Friends. I wanted to take just a quick moment to update you on mortgage rates. They dropped again last week, back to near their lowest levels that we saw at the beginning of the year. This rate opportunity is so tremendous that I wanted to make sure you knew where rates were on the most popular type of loans in case you or one of your loved ones is in need of assistance or has been holding out on moving forward on a new home purchase. Don't forget, President Obama's plan allows for these same rates as well and potentially up to 125% financing of the balance (no cash back) based on appraised value (once the loan amount exceeds 95% there are rate adjusters added). So if an appraised value might be a concern, there could potentially be options through this program as well.

Here are some rate examples on a new home purchase, as well as a no cash back refinance, for the most popular loan programs, as of the close of business on Friday, 11/27/09:

30 Year Fixed: As Low as 4.5%
15 Year Fixed: As Low as 4.25%
10 Year Fixed: As low as 4.25%
5 Year ARM: As Low as 3.75%
7 Year ARM: As Low as 4.0%

Again, these rates will stay this low for too long, so if you or someone you know could benefit from this information, I would be happy to go through a free, no obligation review of the options and solutions I would have available to help them meet their goals.

In the meantime, I hope that you have a great week ahead!

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Why are Rates Still So Low?

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a fabulous Thanksgiving. One of the questions that came up during conversations with friends and family in my neck of the woods is the disbelief that mortgage rates are still so low! I thought I would take a moment to give you a little more insight into that:

With Wall Street unsure about the economy's path, investors look to our nation's central bankers for guidance.

The Federal Reserve has made several points clear:

-- The economy shows tell-tale signs of improvement

-- Unemployment threatens the recovery

-- Inflation pressures are low, for now

Overall, the Fed Minutes from their previous meeting paint the economy as in a state of measured repair, and under tight federal surveillance. Investors like this message and, as a result, stock and bonds markets are improving.

If you haven't checked mortgage rates lately, make a point to do that. In the wake of the Federal Reserve Minutes, conforming mortgage rates are now hovering near their all-time lows set exactly 1 year ago. I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If you have any questions, please let me know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please feel free to reach out.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 25, 2009

Good Afternoon,

Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher and are again testing resistance after a Thanksgiving-like serving of economic data hit the wires this morning.

In the news, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation--the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure--rose more than expected. Also, New Home Sales, Personal Spending, and Personal Income all came in above expectations. Still, Durable Goods Orders for October were reported well below expectations, which illustrates that consumers are still hesitant to make large purchases.

Overall, Bond prices have been on a nice roll recently. But with prices at a ceiling, the risks of floating appear greater than the rewards of locking. Therefore, I recommend locking at this time so that recent gains are not lost. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 24, 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are slightly higher, but off their best levels of the morning.

In the news, the Preliminary Gross Domestic Product reading for the 3rd Quarter was reported in line with expectations, while Consumer Confidence was reported slightly better than expected. Also, the Case-Shiller Index for September reported a slight rise in home prices in the 20 largest US cities, marking the 5th consecutive month of price increases.

Based on where Bond prices are right now in relation to resistance and historic highs, I recommend locking in recent gains. Rates will be moving up, so missing out on the gains while trying to find more gain, may prove costly. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 11/16-11/20, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that this note finds you well. Here is a recap of what has happened in the market over the past week. U.S. Treasuries did well last week, thanks to a big rally the previous Friday, some weaker-than-expected economic reports and a little safe-haven buying. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note held below 3.35% most of the week -- at least 10 basis points lower than the week before -- but ticked up slightly on Friday.

Retail sales for October kicked off a big week of reports, with sales jumping 1.4% thanks to strong demand for cars. Excluding autos, sales rose by only 0.2%. And an unexpectedly huge drop in the NY Empire State manufacturing index for November gave bonds a boost. It plunged to 23.51 from 34.57.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke gave further support to bonds when he stated that "significant economic challenges remain," but he added that he saw moderate growth with subdued inflation
Tuesday's reports were also bond friendly, with the producer price index finding no signs of wholesale inflation. In fact, the core rate, which eliminates food and energy prices, fell 0.6%. In addition, industrial production in October slowed, rising only 0.1%. Capacity utilization edged up to 70.7% from 70.5% but missed expectations.

Wednesday's disappointing report on housing starts and building permits gave traders another reason to buy. Starts fell 10.6% to an annual rate of 529,000 units from 592,000, making October starts the worst since April. Building permits fell 4% to an annual rate of 575,000. The October consumer price index, or CPI, which checks for wholesale inflation, put some pressure on Treasuries. The CPI rose 0.3% when 0.2% was expected, and the core rate also exceeded estimates, rising 0.2%. But losses were offset by weak housing starts Thursday began with first-time jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 14 coming in flat at 505,000, while the four-week average hit its lowest level in almost a year. Continuing claims edged down to 5.611 million from 5.650 million.

The Philly Fed index on Mid-Atlantic manufacturing conditions for November jumped to 16.7, the fourth straight gain and its highest reading since June 2007. But the index of leading economic indicators, which looks at future economic conditions, rose only 0.3% when economists expected a 1% increase. Nevertheless, it's risen for seven consecutive months.

In spite of low mortgage rates, purchase applications fell for the sixth straight week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase apps were down 7.9% while refis dipped 1.4%.
This week will be short and wild with most of the eight-plus reports coming out Tuesday and Wednesday.

Monday's existing home sales for October is expected to show sales rising to an annual rate of 5.65 million units versus September's 5.57 million. This could spawn selling in Treasuries, but if Tuesday's preliminary revision on 3rd quarter GDP is true, they'll recapture losses. Revised 3.0% growth is expected -- significantly lower than the advance 3.5% increase. If the loss is greater, Treasuries will rally.

Tuesday also brings the November consumer confidence index, which can move markets. But a 47.5 reading versus 47.7 in October is expected. This would be a non-event, but if it comes in lower, buying in Treasuries probably will increase. A couple of home price indices are likely to show continuing price erosion.

On Wednesday initial claims could fall below 500,000 -- or not. Whenever they do, bonds won't take kindly to that. Separately, personal income and spending are both expected to rise for October. Income should be up 0.2% from 0.0% while spending is expected to increase 0.5% from 0.5%. But the core PCE, which is a key inflation gauge, should only rise 0.1% -- same as last month.

October durable goods orders should increase 0.5%; that's less than the previous month, but excluding transportation, they could rise 1.0% -- a tad more than the 0.9% in September. And October new home sales are predicted to increase to an annual rate of 414,000 from 402,000. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey for November can influence trading, but if it comes in on target, there will be little reaction. It's expected to rise to 66.5 from 66.0.

Reports that meet expectations generally don't rile the markets. It's when there's a big miss -- either up or down -- that gets buyers and sellers busy. I hope you have a fabulous week on this Thanksgiving Holiday Week. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 19, 2009

Good Afternoon,

Mortgage Bonds are trading slightly higher and, for the moment, remain relatively close to the best prices of 2009.

This morning, Initial Jobless Claims met expectations, and Continuing Jobless Claims fell by 39,000. Once again, that drop is likely due to benefits expiring, rather than people finding jobs. Later today, the Treasury Department will announce next week's auctions, which could add volatility to the market, depending on how the announcement is received.

Currently, Bonds are near their highs for the year. Therefore I recommend locking, since there's presently a higher risk of Bond prices moving to the downside than there are potential gains available to be made on the upside.I hope that you have a great day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 17, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your day is off to a terrific start already.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are starting the day a bit lower, continuing their pullback from yesterday's intraday high.

In the news, October's Producer Price Index--which measures wholesale inflation--came in lower than expected, indicating there is no fear of inflation currently. In other economic news, Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production were reported in line with expectations.

For now, I recommend floating. But be prepared to lock if the downward momentum picks up steam. I will monitor the situation and keep you posted. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week that Was 11/09 -11/13

Good Morning,

Here's an update on what happened last week. Last week was a non-event for the most part in the Mortgage Market. U.S. Treasuries, which weren't traded on Wednesday in observance of Veterans' Day, held their own in spite of major gains on Wall Street and a better-than-expected weekly employment report.

Prices, which move in the opposite direction of yields, ticked up Monday in response to a strong auction of 3-year notes and a feeling that the economy still has multiple hurdles to jump prior to recovery. That should keep money coming into bonds. Prices nudged up again on Tuesday in the wake of a successful 10-year-note auction.

Thursday's first-time unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 7 was the first report of the week. It showed claims dropping by 12,000 to 502,000 -- the fewest since Jan. 3. The four-week average, which smooths volatility, fell to 510,750 and continued claims -- those collecting benefits for more than one week -- dropped to 5.63 million.

Action in the bond pits was minimal, but prices fell after a weak auction of 30-year bonds. Long-term debt is most susceptible to erosion caused by inflation. But the yield on the 10-year held in the mid-3.4% range.

Friday's early reports had no impact, as there is little reaction to import/export price indexes, which were up 0.4% (excluding oil) and 0.3% (excluding agriculture), respectively. The U.S. trade balance in September grew to a wider-than-expected $36.5 billion trade gap -- up from $30.8 billion.

The final report of the week, the University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment report, showed consumers are wary about unemployment and economic recovery. The index fell to 66 from 70.6. But Treasuries remained flat in spite of the news.

A drop in mortgage rates during the week ended Nov. 6 brought refinancers out in droves. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, refis rose 11.3%, but purchase applications declined 13.7%.

As suspected, this week is loaded with reports, and there's at least one market mover each day through Thursday. No reports are scheduled for Friday.

Retail sales for October are up first, and they're expected to rise 0.9% versus a 1.5% decline in September. Ex-autos, sales should grow by 0.4% versus the previous 0.5% increase. The prospect of spending consumers would likely ignite selling in Treasuries.

On the other hand, the NY Empire State index of November manufacturing conditions could stall selling. The index is expected to fall to 29 from October's 34.51 reading. And business inventories for September, which wields little influence, should fall -0.6%.

The producer price index, which looks at wholesale inflation, should increase 0.5% in October -- some of it due to oil prices. In September it fell 0.6%. But the core rate, which eliminates volatile food and energy prices, could rise by an acceptable 0.1% versus the previous 0.1% decline.

We'll also get a report on industrial production, which after several months in negative territory is showing signs of life. A 0.3% increase, however, is expected for October, which would be substantially lower than the 0.7% rise in September. Capacity utilization could creep up to 70.8% from 70.5%.

The consumer price index, or CPI, which is closely watched for signs of inflation, is due Wednesday. Predictions show inflation to be well under control, which would cheer traders. The CPI should rise 0.2%, the same as September, while the core rate is expected to edge up 0.1% -- less than the previous 0.2% increase.

Housing starts and building permits for October are expected to increase, which could put pressure on Treasuries if they beat projections by a lot. Starts should rise to an annual rate of 599,000 units from 590,000, while building permits could increase to an annual rate of 580,000 from 573,000.

Thursday begins with initial claims for the week ended Nov. 14. If there's a big increase, bonds will rally. If there's a big decline, bonds will sell. At least, that's how it's been lately. And leading economic indicators for October, which look at the economy six to months ahead, should show a 0.4% increase, which bodes well for the economy. However, the Philly Fed survey on November manufacturing conditions is expected to fall to 10.8 from 11.5, which could send money into bonds.

That's it for the recap and look ahead. I hope you have a tremendous rest of your day ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 13, 2009

Good Morning,

Happy Friday the 13th of November. I hope that your day is off to a terrific start so far.

In the Markets, Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels this morning, despite the Consumer Sentiment Index coming in much lower than expected.

In other news, the Fed stepped in yesterday with more buying of Mortgage Backed Securities, which helped Bond prices recover from news of a weak Treasury Auction. However, now is a good time to remember that the Fed is winding down that type of buying support, which will likely result in Bond prices moving lower and home loan rates rising over the coming months.

Currently, Bonds facing a tough level of resistance that they haven't been able to move above since early October. Therefore, I suggest locking in the current gains, especially if closing is coming within the next week or so. If you have any questions, please let me know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day and a terrific weekend ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November Client Letter

Good Morning,

Since the Mortgage Bond Market is closed today in observance of the Veteran's Day Federal Holiday, I wanted to take a "minute" to share my client letter with you, as perhaps you may find value in the important resource mentioned here, or know of someone who can use this information. Please feel free to share.

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I hope this note finds you well and enjoying this wonderful fall season.

I wanted to take just a moment to send you a friendly reminder to obtain a free copy of your credit report by going to http://annualcreditreport.com/ . This site is the result of a Federal initiative mandating that the 3 major credit reporting agencies allow consumers free access to their credit report once every 12 months. I accentuate the word "free" here because there are several other websites with similar names which are not free at all. You can obtain all 3 reports at once, or perhaps spread them over the year, collecting one from each bureau at the start of each quarter.

I highly recommend that you take advantage of http://annualcreditreport.com/ every year as one additional step in protecting yourself from identity theft and to make sure your credit is in good order for the next time you need a mortgage or any other major purchase. I send you all the best wishes for a fantastic end to 2009 and a great 2010 ahead as well!

As always, if you have any questions about this email, or just want to say "Hello", I'm always here to serve you. Thanks again for your loyal business and referrals.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 10, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that this note finds you well and that your Tuesday is off to a fantastic start already.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are starting the day higher. There are no economic reports due today, but another record amount of debt is set to hit the Bond market this afternoon when the Treasury Department auctions off $25 Billion in 10-year Notes.

Most of the recent auctions--including yesterday's $40 Billion offering of 3-year Notes--have been well received. This has added much needed support as the Fed winds down their purchases and has helped keep Mortgage Bonds near present levels.

I recommend floating mortgage rate locks for now, to see if Bonds can continue the gains seen over the past several days. But be prepared to lock if the ceiling of resistance that's just above current levels negatively impacts Bonds. I will keep you posted.

Don't forget the Bond Market will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Veteran's Day Federal Holiday. I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 09, 2009

Good Afternoon,

A quick update on today's events. Mortgage Bonds are continuing to improve so far today, following the pricing gains seen since Friday's weak Jobs Report. Stocks are also trading sharply higher so far today after the G-20, a group of finance ministers and central bank governors from 20 world economies, pledged to keep aid flowing to global economies until a recovery was assured.

There are no economic reports today but there is plenty of supply hitting the market via the Treasury auctions, which could weigh on Bond prices. Also on Friday, in case you were not aware, President Obama signed the extended and expanded Homebuyer Tax Credit.

I recommend floating mortgage rates for now, but I will be watching closely to see how today's auction results impact trading. If a change of course is needed, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week that Was 11/02-11/06, 2009

Good Morning,

Last Friday's worse-than-expected employment report for September turned Treasuries, which had been under pressure most of the week, around. The unemployment rate soared to 10.2% -- the highest since 1983 -- from 9.8%, when 9.9% was expected.

This was just the medicine Treasuries, which struggled through a week loaded with positive economic reports, needed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell below 3.50%, jumped back up and then headed back down.

Wednesday's Fed post-meeting statement said rates would remain low for an "extended" period, which was good news. But positive comments of economic activity "continuing to pick up" and a stronger housing market worried traders. In addition, three auctions of government debt were announced for this week, which usually initiates selling in Treasuries due to supply worries.

At its September meeting the Fed extended the date for buying MBS to March 2010, and there was hope that it would also expand its purchasing program. But that didn't happen, perhaps indicating a slowing of future purchases.

Positive economic news arrived early last Monday with the October ISM index on manufacturing conditions jumping to 55.7 from 52.6, led by an increase in employment. Analysts were expecting 53.

Pending home sales also rose 6.1% in September sending the index to 110.1 -- the highest it's been since December 2006. The first-time home buyer tax credit, which was extended to April 30, 2010, was a major factor in the increase. Also on the rise was construction spending for September, up 6.1% when a -0.3% was forecast.

Tuesday was quiet, as the markets braced for the Fed. But factory orders in September grew 0.9% and have risen five times in the last six months. In addition, inventories fell 1%, indicating strong demand for U.S.-manufactured goods.

Although Wednesday was all about the Fed, the ISM index on the service sector for October came in lower than the expected 51.7. It edged down to 50.6 from 50.9.

On Thursday Treasuries held their ground after early losses in spite of a 200-plus gain by the Dow. First-time jobless claims for the week ended Oct. 31 fell by 20,000 to 512,000, the lowest since January, and this put selling pressure on bonds. Initial claims have been above 500,000 for 51 straight weeks. Continued claims, those collecting benefits for more than one week, also fell, coming in at 5.75 million.

Productivity in the 3rdquarter rose 9.9% versus a 2ndquarter increase of 6.6%. Although high productivity is good for manufacturers, who get more output per hour, it doesn't do much to help the employment situation.

The employment report, heavily anticipated, was worse than expected. Jobs shed from U.S. payrolls came in at 190,000, which was higher than the 175,000 that analysts expected. And the 10.2% jobless rate is expected to keep rising into next year.

Wholesale inventories, which don't get any respect since they always follow the employment report, fell 1% in September. This turned out to be right on target, and inventory reduction is a good thing.

Mortgage rates edged down again during the week ended Oct. 30, but this time applications rose, at least for those wanting to refinance. Refis jumped 14.5%, but purchases fell 1.8%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

This week is an odd one because not only are there few economic reports, but most of them have little influence on the markets. That leaves Treasuries open to outside influences, which makes it almost impossible to figure which way they'll go.

And to make matters worse, we don't get any news until initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 7 are released on Thursday. There is no consensus yet as to which way they'll go, but if claims fall below 500,000, Wall Street will likely rally and Treasuries will probably sell. Employment is the key to economic recovery; weekly declines in the number of people filing is a good sign for the economy, but not for bonds.

Friday ends with a couple of trade reports that have no influence on the markets. However, we'll get the University of Michigan/Reuters' preliminary consumer sentiment index for November, which should rise to 71.8 from 70.6. This could foster selling in bonds.

I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 4, 2009

Good Morning,

Stocks are rallying higher this morning. Although this would normally add selling pressure to Bonds, Bonds are starting the day near unchanged levels and have actaully fared better as of the latest news today.

Yesterday, the Fed issued its Policy Statement without any big changes or surprises. In today's news, Initial Jobless Claims was reported lower than expected and at the lowest reading since the first week of 2009. Continuing Claims also dropped, but this is likely due to benefits expiring rather than people finding jobs.

Despite today's better-than-expected numbers, tomorrow's official Jobs Report will probably indicate continued weakness in the labor market, with the unemployment rate likely nearing 10%. Bonds are currently holding their own; therefore, I recommend floating as we await tomorrow's report. Have a great day! If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute --November 4, 2009

Good Afternoon,

It's Fed Day and that means the Fed will release its decision on interest rates and its current Policy Statement later this afternoon. The Fed is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged; however, it may offer comments or clues on future rate hikes or inflation concerns.

In other news, the House of Representatives approved legislation that would extend and expand the $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. While there is more work to be done, a bill may reach President Obama for his signature by the end of this week. I will continue to monitor this situation to see if you may be able to benefit from the bill once it's finalized.

For now, I recommend floating. But be prepared to lock if the Fed's announcement this afternoon adds volatility to the markets. As always, I will let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 3, 2009

Good Morning,

Happy election day! I hope you have an opportunity to exercise your right to vote today in the community where you live.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged this morning, as they sit just below a ceiling of resistance at the 25-Day Moving Average.

There are no economic reports today. However, the Fed kicks off its two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting with a statement to be released tomorrow afternoon. The markets will be listening closely tomorrow to see if the Fed hints at when they'll remove the mortgage rate friendly policy or begin hiking rates.

For now, I recommend floating. I will continue to monitor the markets throughout the day and keep you posted on any major developments. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy your day, get out to vote if you are able to do so in your community and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- November 02, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that your week is off to a terrific start. Mortgage Bonds opened the week near an important technical level while Stocks have been improving throughout the day.

There are no Treasury auctions this week but there are several important potential market movers, including the Fed Meeting and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday, the Jobs Report with unemployment rate figures on Friday, and an expected final vote on the extension and expansion of the first-time homebuyer tax credit.

I recommend floating for now, but I will let you know if the news of the day or technical factors require a change of course. I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 30, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a terrific start. In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading higher this morning, now that the weight of the Treasury Department's record $123 Billion in auctions are behind us.

In the news, Personal Income was reported unchanged in September, while Consumer Spending fell 0.5%. Also this morning, some encouraging news came from the Chicago PMI and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, which both came in better than expectations with mildly positive numbers.

Currently, Bond prices are trading just below the 25-Day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now. I will continue to monitor the market throughout the day and keep you informed of any major developments. I hope you enjoy your day and have a great weekend ahead too -- Happy Halloween! If there is ever anything I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 26, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope your Monday is going well for you. 35 days remain in the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit -- its getting down to crunch time!

In the markets, Mortgage Bonds were lower this morning, following through on Friday's weakness and responding to a move higher in Stocks. While Stocks are higher due to good earnings reports, it is important to understand that positive earnings numbers gained by cutting jobs are not really positive for the economy, nor are these gains sustainable.

There are no economic reports set for release today, but later this week we’ll have reports on housing, consumer demand, economic growth, inflation and the labor market. In addition, there will be more Treasury auctions later this week as well.

The Fed’s Treasury buyback program comes to an end on Thursday. Without the Fed buying support helping to provide demand to sop up some of the massive supply…rates will continue to edge higher back to more "historically normal" levels.

Bonds have fallen below two support levels. I recommend carefully floating, but should Bonds drop lower I will let you know if we need to lock. In the meatime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 22, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Thursday is treating you well. Here in Central Iowa its a rainy, cool day, fairly typical for October. In the Markets, Mortgage Bonds are lower this morning, but are fighting to stay above a dual layer of support at the 50- and 200-day Moving Averages.

In the news, Initial Jobless Claims rose more than expected. In addition, the number of individuals continuing to receive unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level since March, but this is likely the result of people’s unemployment benefits expiring, without them having been able to find jobs.

For now, we can certainly continue to float as the Bond hovers near support. But things may change quickly due to the Treasury Department’s announcement of next week’s auctions, which could be in record amounts! The large treasury auctions are a reality check that as consumers we have to pay back all the stimulus and spending dollars poured out over the past year and a half. If anything changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 20, 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are getting a boost higher this morning, as prices respond to weaker than expected housing numbers and tame wholesale inflation data.

Housing Starts and Building Permits both came in under expectations. In addition, the Producer Price Index--which measures wholesale inflation--unexpectedly fell due to a drop in energy prices. Next month's number could climb higher again, as oil and natural gas have both been on a tear lately.

For now, I recommend floating, since the Bond is resting above the 200-Day Moving Average. But stay tuned for any major changes that may occur during the day. I will keep you posted. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

Your Mortgage Minute -- Octiber 19, 2009

Good Morning,

Last week went by with such a flurry -- we are now down to a precious 42 days in the rush to take advantage of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. There is still time to accomplish this goal, but the days are starting to get shorter. if you or some you care about is in the market for this opportunity, please make sure to touch base with a local real estate professional in your area who can help you get through this.

On to the news of the day ... after a wild run last week, Mortgage Bonds are starting the week on the quiet side. With no economic reports due for release today, Bonds will likely react to action in Stocks as well as a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke later this morning.

Stocks are attempting to maintain a rally, fueled by optimism that 3rd Quarter Corporate earnings will continue to exceed expectations. So far, 61 companies from within the S&P 500 have reported earnings, with 79% beating expectations. It is worth noting that 61 companies is a small sampling of the 500 due to report - additionally the expectations for the earnings have been pretty low. So essentially, it is a matter of perspective, but in this market baby steps of improvement in corporate earnings signal higher trends in Mortgage Rates soon.

After last week’s decline, Bonds are now trying to stabilize and hold their ground above a key support level. I recommend Floating, but I will alert you should sentiment change. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 9, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is going great so far. Just a friendly reminder -- Only 52 days remain for the first time home buyer tax credit, the clock continues to tick on this fabulous opportunity. If you or someone you know is in the market for a home purchase, please feel free to pass my contact information along.

In the Markets, yesterday's 30-year Treasury Bond auction was poorly received, which applied some selling pressure on the Bond market that has carried forward into today's trading action.

This morning, Mortgage Bond prices hit a tough overhead ceiling of resistance, as they attempted to move higher. They have since been turned back and remain lower so far today. Therefore, I recommend locking, especially if you are closing in the next week or so, as all of the gains over the past week have been virtually erased.

The Bond market is closed Monday in observance of the Columbus Day holiday. However, both the Stock market and Bond market have regular sessions today. I will continue to monitor the markets and keep you posted of any major developments as the day goes on. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 8, 2009

Since the beginning of the month, Mortgage Bonds have been battling an overhead ceiling of resistance. Prices have been unable to make a convincing move above this ceiling, thanks in part to recent Treasury auctions and a resilient Stock market.

Earnings season kicked off yesterday, and as always, aluminum giant Alcoa was the very first company to report. Alcoa beat expectations and returned to profitability for the first time in a year, which is giving a lift to Stocks so far this morning.

Initial Jobless Claims Report were released today coming in lower than expectations and were the fewest claims since the 1st week in January.

The Treasury auction results will hit at 1:00pm ET, as the government auctions off $12B in 30-year Bonds and it could have an impact on the Bond market.

For this morning, I will recommend to Carefully Float, but I will be on guard for a reversal as Bond prices battle tough overhead resistance. If anything changes, I will let you know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Wednesday 10.07.09

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is off to a terrific start already. In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading higher, but are lower than their best levels from earlier this morning.

In the news today, more Bond supply is on the way, as the Treasury will auction off $20 Billion in 10-year Notes at 1 pm Eastern Time. Yesterday's 3-year Note auction wasn't received very well, so Traders will be watching today's auction very closely.

For now, I recommend floating. But be prepared to lock in the recent gains if the situation changes. Bond prices have already been pushed back from resistance and may be further affected by the auction later today. I will keep you posted. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 5, 2009

Good Afternoon,

Mortgage Bonds are starting the week modestly higher. Prices continue to battle resistance at highs last seen in late May.

This week brings another round of Treasury auctions, and as we have seen in the past, this could shake up the markets. Also, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees unemployment rising beyond 10%, yet he advised against a second massive stimulus package, as he fears the long-term negative consequences.

I recommend Floating for now, but be ready to Lock should sentiment change. I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- October 1, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope your Thrusday is going great. It is a rainy day here in Central Iowa. Only 60 days remain for the first time home buyer tax credit, the clock continues to tick on this opportunity.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading higher in response to worse than expected employment data as well as weakness in Stocks.

In the news, Initial Jobless Claims increased more than expected, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market. The ISM Manufacturing Index also came in slightly worse than expected. There was some good news, however, as Pending Home Sales were reported far above expectations and Personal Spending for August rose at its fastest monthly pace in almost 8 years, thanks in large part to the "Cash for Clunkers" program.

Currently, Mortgage Rates are still near all-time lows and present an incredible opportunity for a borrower. With the Federal Reserve's decision to cut back on buying mortgage back securities in the first quarter of 2010, rates will gradually return to the historical average 6-6.5% for a 30 year loan.

For now, I recommend floating into tomorrow's Jobs Report. But be prepared to lock if today's announcement of next week's Treasury auctions causes the markets to stir. If it does, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 30, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope your Wednesday is off to a great start already. In the Markets today, prices continue to battle resistance at their recent price highs, having touched this ceiling each of the last three days.

In the news, the ADP Report showed that private employers cut more jobs than expected in September. Also this morning, Gross Domestic Product for the 2nd Quarter came in low, but not as bad as expected. Finally, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported well below expectations--which sent Stocks lower and helped Mortgage Bonds erase their earlier losses.

For now, I recommend floating. But the nearest level of support is still 50 basis points below the current level, so be prepared to lock if Bonds turn sour. I will keep you posted as the situation warrants. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 29, 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning, erasing some of yesterday afternoon's gains.

In the news today, Consumer Confidence for September was reported quite a bit lower than expectations. On the news, Stocks reversed lower, helping Mortgage Bonds improve from their worst levels. Also today, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in better than expectations and may indicate that that the worst of the housing price declines are behind us.

I recommend floating for now. But with the nearest floor of support sitting 50 basis points beneath the current level, be prepared to lock quickly if the situation changes -- I will certainly keep you posted. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Monday September 28, 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels to start the week. Trading volume may be light today because of the Jewish high holy day of Yom Kippur, and lighter trading volume can make the market susceptible to greater volatility.

There are no economic reports set for release today; however, the rest of the week is filled with important releases, including Friday's heavyweight Jobs Report. In addition, there are no big Treasury auctions scheduled for this week, but on Thursday the Treasury will announce the size of next week's auctions and this announcement could be a market mover.

I recommend floating for now, as Bonds test resistance at some of the best levels seen since late May. If anything changes, I’ll get back to you. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 25, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a terrific start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 66 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000, if you are in the market to do so.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are down slightly this morning, after prices tested resistance and were pushed lower.

In the news, Durable Goods Orders for August unexpectedly fell 2.4% for the largest decline since January. In addition, New Home Sales for August were reported slightly lower than expectations. However, the report showed some signs of an improving market as the inventory of unsold homes dropped to its lowest level since January 2007.

Currently, Bonds are well off their best levels of the day. Therefore, I recommend locking. I will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if any major changes develop. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 24, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Thursday is off to a terrific start. In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are higher so far, after yesterday's wild ride in which prices dropped due to the poor auction results, but then moved higher after the Fed statement was released.

In today's news, Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations. Bonds worsened initially on the headline, but have since moved back to positive territory. Existing Home Sales were also reported less than expected. However, the inventory of unsold homes fell to the lowest inventory level since April 2007.

Currently, Bond prices are battling overhead resistance at the 200-day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now, but stay tuned as today's auction of $29 Billion worth of 7-yr Notes could shake things up later. I will certainly keep you posted as the day unfolds if a change of course is required. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 23, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is off to a terrific start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 68 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000.

In the Markets today, Bonds are drifting lower so far this morning and are battling to remain above support at the 25-Day Moving Average.

There are no economic reports due out today, but the Fed will end its meeting this afternoon with the release of its Policy Statement. Although the Fed probably won't change its Fed Funds Rate, the markets will be looking for comments regarding the health of the economy and the Fed's Mortgage Backed Security purchase program.

I recommend floating for now, as I monitor the release of the Fed's Policy Statement as well as the results of Treasury's record auction of $40 Billion in 5-year T-Notes today. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 21, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Monday is off to a great start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 70 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000.

In the Markets Today, following somewhat turbulent trading last week, Bonds will likely take their cues from Stock market action today. Stocks have traded higher nine out of the last eleven trading sessions but are trading lower today, which is lifting Bond prices.

This week will bring record size Treasury auctions beginning on Tuesday afternoon, totaling $112 Billion made of 2-, 5-, and 7-year Notes. Also this week, the Fed starts it's 2-day FOMC meeting tomorrow with a statement coming on Wednesday afternoon.

I recommend floating for now, as Bonds remain between two important technical levels. If anything changes, I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 18, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a great start already. There are only 73 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.

In the Markets Today, Mortgage Bonds are starting the day to the downside, giving back some of the great gains they achieved yesterday.

Putting pressure on Mortgage Bonds is the Stock market, which is having a strong morning.

However, Stocks could be volatile today for a number of reasons, including expiring Stock index futures and light trading due to Rosh Hashanah. Lighter trading can make the market susceptible to exaggerated moves--and volatility in Stocks may cause volatility in Bonds.

With prices currently unable to stay above the 200-day Moving Average, I recommend locking. I will continue to monitor the market and keep you posted on any major developments. In the meantime, here's to a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 16, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is off to a great start already. There are only 75 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.

In the Markets today, The Consumer Price Index was reported slightly higher than expected this morning. When volatile food and energy were stripped out, however, the Core CPI was in line with expectations. The Bond market liked the report and initially added to yesterday's gains, but have since come down after the Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production both came in a little hotter than expected.

Stocks, on the other hand, are at 2009 highs and are getting a boost this morning on positive comments from billionaire investor Warren Buffet, who remarked that the US economy has bottomed out.

Currently, the Bond remains above support at the 25-Day and 100-Day Moving Averages. I recommend floating as long as these floors hold. I will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 15, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Tuesday is off to a great start already. There are only 76 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning after the Producer Price Index came in more than double expectations, prompting fears of wholesale inflation. We'll get a better read on inflation tomorrow, when the Consumer Price Index is released.

In other news, Retail Sales for last month were reported at the largest monthly increase in three years, due largely to the Cash for Clunkers program. Additionally, the New York State Manufacturing Index climbed to its highest level since late 2007. However, this may indicate a temporary boost for manufacturing, rather than a true uptick in business activity.

Overall, Bonds have rallied back strong after bouncing off of support at the 100-Day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now as I watch to see if support holds. If a change of course is required, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 4, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a great start. 87 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?

Why The Day Before Labor Day Weekend is Tough on Home Affordability


Volume figures to be light on Wall Street today as traders get a head start on Labor Day weekend. It could make shopping for a mortgage a bona fide challenge. Expect rate volatility this morning and afternoon and, therefore, by extension, expect wild swings in the Home Affordability Index. As mortgage rates rise and fall, monthly mortgage payments do, too.

The relationship between "vacation days" and mortgage rate volatility stems from 2 facts -- (1) Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, and (2) mortgage-backed bonds trade just like stocks. You can't make a deal without matching a buyer and a seller at a specific price.

With so many traders on vacation today, therefore, there are fewer opportunities to match buyers and sellers. As a result, expect mortgage bond prices to rise and fall with more velocity than on a "normal" day -- especially because the August jobs report was just released.

So far this morning, mortgage rates have been jumpy and are higher versus Thursday's close.

That said, mortgage pricing is fluid, changing every minute of every day. Today, expect those changes to be exaggerated. If you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it because, before long, the rate could be gone.

I hope you have a great Friday.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 03, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope your Thursday is off to a great start. 88 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds opened a little lower this morning, as Traders may be exercising caution ahead of today's Treasury Auction and tomorrow's official Jobs Report.

In other news, Initial Jobless Claims were reported slightly worse than expected and the four-week average of new claims rose to its highest level in eight weeks. Overall, the report indicates that the labor market is still having difficulty. This comes ahead of tomorrow's official Jobs Report, which is the best measure we have of real-time job creations and losses.

Working against Bonds is the Treasury Auction, the potential for a better-than-expected Jobs number, and other technical factors. Weighing it all out, I recommend locking at this time as rates could jump higher short term. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything I can do for you, please let me know. I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 1, 2009

Good Morning,

90 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?

Another Sign Of Economic Recovery : Consumer Sentiment Rising

In a bit of good news for the economy, Consumer Sentiment fell to 4-month lows in August. The drop wasn't "good news", per se, but because it wasn't nearly as large as economists expected, Wall Street cheered it.

The index, jointly published by the University of Michigan and Reuters, measures how Americans feel about their situation today, and how they envision it six months in the future.

Since bottoming 5 months ago, consumer sentiment has added more than 10 points.

Rising Consumer Sentiment figures can foreshadow economic growth because confident consumers are more apt to spend money on big-ticket items including appliances, automobiles, and, of course, new homes.

The recent run of sentiment data is one more reason to believe a full economic recovery is underway.

That said, the Consumer Sentiment survey has its flaws.

For one, the survey's sample set includes just 500 households nationwide and that's not a true cross-section of America. And second, just because people feel more confident about their finances doesn't always mean they'll spend more money -- sometimes, they choose to save.

For now, though, stronger-than-expected sentiment data should help propel both retail sales and home sales volume through the fall season, and may even create some inflationary pressure on the economy.

If these levels are sustained, expect that mortgage rates will rise.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 31,2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Monday is off to a rockin' start

Mortgage markets were flat last week overall, although mortgage rates were somewhat volatile from day-to-day.
For rate shoppers, the best pricing was available Monday morning and Friday afternoon -- everything in between was slightly elevated.

It's the second consecutive week in which rates finished unchanged.

There was a string of good news last week about the economy, led by housing. New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, and the Case-Shiller Index all surprised to the high-side and consumer confidence numbers came in higher-than-expected, too.

In prior weeks, strong data like this would have caused mortgage rates to rise. Last week, however, it didn't. Mostly because foreign demand for mortgage-backed bonds has remained strong.

This week, there's only one major data release and its timing may prove to be problematic.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August Non-Farm Payrolls report. With housing's rebound seemingly underway, the jobs report takes on added significance. Joblessness can undermine consumer confidence and spending and cause harm to the recovering U.S. economy.

This is one reason why rate shoppers should be cautious toward the end of the week -- the jobs report will move markets. The other reason to be cautious is because Friday is the day before the beginning of the Labor Day Holiday Weekend and Wall Street will be short-staffed throughout the day.

Fewer traders means more volatility -- if rates start to pop, they'll really pop. As we progress, I will certainly keep you posted if the situation warrants. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy your day, and if there is ever anything that I can do for you please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 26, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is going strong for you.

In the Financial Markets Today, Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels and this comes after yesterday’s late day rally sparked by good results from the 2-year Treasury Note auction.

New Home Sales surged a tremendous 9.6% in July from June’s reading, signaling that the housing market is stabilizing. Adding to the positive tone of the report was a drop in inventories, which now stands at a 7.5 month supply from last month's 8.8 month reading.

I will continue to recommend Floating for now, but this afternoon the Treasury will auction more government debt and the results may influence pricing. If there are any changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 24, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Monday is off to a great start. School is back in session in most of the country now and Fall is just around the corner -- a great time of the year!

In the Markets this morning, Mortgage Bonds are still facing some tough overhead resistance after failing to break above a key level on Friday. In the absence of Bond friendly news or a Stock market decline, pricing could continue to worsen before improving.

There are no economic reports due for release today, but the rest of the week's reports will give investors a broad view of the economy. In addition, the Treasury Department is going to auction off $109 Billion in Securities on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, which could certainly move the market.

I recommend floating for now, but be ready to lock should prices continue to drift lower. I will certainly keep you posted if the situation changes. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 20, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Thursday is off to a great start.

In the Markets today, Bonds received a boost higher this morning, but the improvement was halted by a strong ceiling of resistance at the 200-Day Moving Average.

Helping boost Bonds was the Initial Jobless Claims report, which came in higher than expected after a string of better-than-expected reports recently. The news was a bit sobering, showing the labor market remains weak. Also in the news, the volatile Philly Fed Index showed the first manufacturing increase in a year and the highest reading since November 2007.

Currently, prices are facing tough ceilings of resistance. And with the Treasury Department's announcement this morning of next week's auctions, the risks of floating are greater than the rewards. Therefore, I recommend LOCKING if you are closing in the next couple of weeks. I will continue to monitor the situation for you. If any changes are warranted, I will certainly let you know.

In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 17, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope your Monday is going great and that your week is off to a fabulous start!

In the Markets this morning, Mortgage Bonds are starting the week to the upside, as Stocks slide lower due to fears of a slower than anticipated world economic recovery.

Amidst all the global negativity was some better than expected news this morning on US manufacturing, as the Empire State Index came in far better than expectations. There are no Treasury auctions this week, but this Thursday will bring the announcement for the upcoming round of Bond supply that will hit the market next week. Bonds have not reacted well to previous announcements of additional supply, so this will be something to watch for later this week.

I recommend floating for now as Stocks continue to struggle, but I will be watching closely in case the market changes direction. You can certainly follow me on Twitter @MortgageMinute for real time updates, if you wish. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 13, 2009

Good Afternoon.

I hope that this note finds you well and that you are having an AWESOME Thursday so far.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds were on the plus side late this morning after initially dropping due news that Germany and France have declared that their recessions are over, as well as Wal-Mart's announcement that it beat earnings estimates for the 2nd Quarter.

Helping boost Mortgage Bonds, however, was the Initial Jobless Claims report, which came in above expectations. Also helping Bonds was news that Retail Sales dropped in July by 0.1%, which was well below the 0.8% gain that was expected. This signals that consumers are still saving more than spending.

Currently, Bonds are sitting comfortable after the up-and-down roller coaster like trading atmosphere this morning. I recommend floating for now as I watch to see how the markets receive today's Treasury auction. But be prepared to lock if the situation turns volatile like yesterday. You can follwo my realtime updates on Twitter at @MortgageMinute In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 12, 2009

Good Morning,

In the markets today, Bonds are attempting to hold on to their gains this morning in advance of two big events coming up this afternoon. At 1 o'clock Eastern Time, the results of the $23 Billion auction of 10-year Notes will be released. Then at 2:15, the Fed will issue its Policy Statement after its two-day Fed Meeting.

The news from the Fed will be both multi-faceted and potentially market moving. Any hints of inflation and hikes could cause the market to swing in one direction. However, news of Bond purchases could cause an opposite reaction.

I recommend floating as of now, but be prepared to change course if the action heats up this afternoon. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 11, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope your Tuesday is off to a great start so far.

In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are higher this morning, as they continue to follow through on yesterday's day long rally.

Helping give Bonds a lift was good news on inflation from the Labor Department. Worker Productivity came in better than expected and rose at its fastest pace in 6 years, as companies cut costs and try to maximize output from their current staff. This efficiency helps curb inflation, which is good for long-term Bonds like Mortgage Bonds.

Currently, Bonds are higher after breaking above resistance this morning. I recommend floating for now, as we watch to see how today's Treasury auction of 3-year Notes is received. I will certainly keep you posted on any major developments.

In the meantime, have a great day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 10, 2009

Good Morning!

Here's to a terrific start to your week.

In the Markets today, after a 4-week rally higher, Stocks are a little lower this morning, which is helping Mortgage Bonds trade higher so far. That is certainly welcome news to the start of the week.

Despite a number of economic reports this week as well as the Fed Policy announcement on Wednesday, the big news could be the Treasury auctions. If the buying of Treasuries is strong, we could see a nice improvement in Mortgage Bonds. However, a poor showing could cause the Bond market to suffer further.

For now, Bond prices are trading modestly higher. Therefore, I recommend floating. I will let you know if a change of course is needed.

Last week was certainly filled with much market volatility -- a roller coaster for sure. If you are in need of real time updates on the markets as well, feel free to follow me on Twitter as well @MortgageMinute In the meantime, I hope your day is great for you. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- August 7, 2009

Wow!

What a day it has been so far.

Mortgage Bonds dropped sharply this morning and Stocks moved higher, after the Labor Department's Job Report came in better than economists expected and at the smallest loss since August. In addition, Unemployment dropped to 9.4%, from the prior month's reading of 9.5%--breaking a streak of 9 straight monthly increases.

While the report doesn't bode well for Mortgage Bonds in the short term, it is good news for the economy since it may be a sign that the worst recession in our lifetime could be ending.

Currently, Bond prices have dropped near session lows. Therefore I recommend locking at this time, if you haven't done so already and have a closing scheduled within the next 30 days. I will continue to monitor the situation throughout the day and certainly keep you posted of any major changes.

In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day and a wonderful weekend ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- HOME of the Day

Good Morning,

Today's feature home is on the South Side of Des Moines and wow, what a find at only $105,900. This home is located at 2933 SE 5th Street, Des Moines, IA. This is a great opportunity for a first time home buyer. The Listing Agent, Angela Meek of Re/Max Real Estate Concepts, shares the following information about this property:

"Welcome home to this well kept three bedroom ranch with over 1400+ sq ft finished. This home features newer laminate flooring, new carpet, and designer paint throughout. When you step inside the front door you will be welcomed by the large living room with a picture window. The eat in kitchen comes with all appliances and has plenty of cabinets and counterspace. The three bedrooms are conveniently located near the full bathroom. The basement showcases a big family room, laundry room (washer & dryer included) and plenty of storage. A fenced in backyard with playset is perfect for kids and a deck to sit outside and enjoy the fresh air. Great location, right down the street Howe Elementary School. $10, 000 grant money is available for additional updates through NFC."

To arrange a private tour, please contact Angela at 515-577-7729 or via email at angela@angelameek.com. For more listings by Angela please visit her website at http://angelameek.com