Good Afternoon,
I hope your Wednesday is off to a great start already. In the Markets today, prices continue to battle resistance at their recent price highs, having touched this ceiling each of the last three days.
In the news, the ADP Report showed that private employers cut more jobs than expected in September. Also this morning, Gross Domestic Product for the 2nd Quarter came in low, but not as bad as expected. Finally, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported well below expectations--which sent Stocks lower and helped Mortgage Bonds erase their earlier losses.
For now, I recommend floating. But the nearest level of support is still 50 basis points below the current level, so be prepared to lock if Bonds turn sour. I will keep you posted as the situation warrants. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 29, 2009
Good Morning,
Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning, erasing some of yesterday afternoon's gains.
In the news today, Consumer Confidence for September was reported quite a bit lower than expectations. On the news, Stocks reversed lower, helping Mortgage Bonds improve from their worst levels. Also today, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in better than expectations and may indicate that that the worst of the housing price declines are behind us.
I recommend floating for now. But with the nearest floor of support sitting 50 basis points beneath the current level, be prepared to lock quickly if the situation changes -- I will certainly keep you posted. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning, erasing some of yesterday afternoon's gains.
In the news today, Consumer Confidence for September was reported quite a bit lower than expectations. On the news, Stocks reversed lower, helping Mortgage Bonds improve from their worst levels. Also today, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in better than expectations and may indicate that that the worst of the housing price declines are behind us.
I recommend floating for now. But with the nearest floor of support sitting 50 basis points beneath the current level, be prepared to lock quickly if the situation changes -- I will certainly keep you posted. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Monday, September 28, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Monday September 28, 2009
Good Morning,
Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels to start the week. Trading volume may be light today because of the Jewish high holy day of Yom Kippur, and lighter trading volume can make the market susceptible to greater volatility.
There are no economic reports set for release today; however, the rest of the week is filled with important releases, including Friday's heavyweight Jobs Report. In addition, there are no big Treasury auctions scheduled for this week, but on Thursday the Treasury will announce the size of next week's auctions and this announcement could be a market mover.
I recommend floating for now, as Bonds test resistance at some of the best levels seen since late May. If anything changes, I’ll get back to you. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Mortgage Bonds are trading near unchanged levels to start the week. Trading volume may be light today because of the Jewish high holy day of Yom Kippur, and lighter trading volume can make the market susceptible to greater volatility.
There are no economic reports set for release today; however, the rest of the week is filled with important releases, including Friday's heavyweight Jobs Report. In addition, there are no big Treasury auctions scheduled for this week, but on Thursday the Treasury will announce the size of next week's auctions and this announcement could be a market mover.
I recommend floating for now, as Bonds test resistance at some of the best levels seen since late May. If anything changes, I’ll get back to you. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Friday, September 25, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 25, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Friday is off to a terrific start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 66 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000, if you are in the market to do so.
In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are down slightly this morning, after prices tested resistance and were pushed lower.
In the news, Durable Goods Orders for August unexpectedly fell 2.4% for the largest decline since January. In addition, New Home Sales for August were reported slightly lower than expectations. However, the report showed some signs of an improving market as the inventory of unsold homes dropped to its lowest level since January 2007.
Currently, Bonds are well off their best levels of the day. Therefore, I recommend locking. I will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if any major changes develop. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 24, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Thursday is off to a terrific start. In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are higher so far, after yesterday's wild ride in which prices dropped due to the poor auction results, but then moved higher after the Fed statement was released.
In today's news, Initial Jobless Claims came in below expectations. Bonds worsened initially on the headline, but have since moved back to positive territory. Existing Home Sales were also reported less than expected. However, the inventory of unsold homes fell to the lowest inventory level since April 2007.
Currently, Bond prices are battling overhead resistance at the 200-day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now, but stay tuned as today's auction of $29 Billion worth of 7-yr Notes could shake things up later. I will certainly keep you posted as the day unfolds if a change of course is required. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 23, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Wednesday is off to a terrific start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 68 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000.
In the Markets today, Bonds are drifting lower so far this morning and are battling to remain above support at the 25-Day Moving Average.
There are no economic reports due out today, but the Fed will end its meeting this afternoon with the release of its Policy Statement. Although the Fed probably won't change its Fed Funds Rate, the markets will be looking for comments regarding the health of the economy and the Fed's Mortgage Backed Security purchase program.
I recommend floating for now, as I monitor the release of the Fed's Policy Statement as well as the results of Treasury's record auction of $40 Billion in 5-year T-Notes today. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Monday, September 21, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 21, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Monday is off to a great start already. The clock continues to tick...there are only 70 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous chance for $8,000.
In the Markets Today, following somewhat turbulent trading last week, Bonds will likely take their cues from Stock market action today. Stocks have traded higher nine out of the last eleven trading sessions but are trading lower today, which is lifting Bond prices.
This week will bring record size Treasury auctions beginning on Tuesday afternoon, totaling $112 Billion made of 2-, 5-, and 7-year Notes. Also this week, the Fed starts it's 2-day FOMC meeting tomorrow with a statement coming on Wednesday afternoon.
I recommend floating for now, as Bonds remain between two important technical levels. If anything changes, I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Friday, September 18, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 18, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Friday is off to a great start already. There are only 73 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.
In the Markets Today, Mortgage Bonds are starting the day to the downside, giving back some of the great gains they achieved yesterday.
Putting pressure on Mortgage Bonds is the Stock market, which is having a strong morning.
However, Stocks could be volatile today for a number of reasons, including expiring Stock index futures and light trading due to Rosh Hashanah. Lighter trading can make the market susceptible to exaggerated moves--and volatility in Stocks may cause volatility in Bonds.
With prices currently unable to stay above the 200-day Moving Average, I recommend locking. I will continue to monitor the market and keep you posted on any major developments. In the meantime, here's to a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 16, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Wednesday is off to a great start already. There are only 75 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.
In the Markets today, The Consumer Price Index was reported slightly higher than expected this morning. When volatile food and energy were stripped out, however, the Core CPI was in line with expectations. The Bond market liked the report and initially added to yesterday's gains, but have since come down after the Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production both came in a little hotter than expected.
Stocks, on the other hand, are at 2009 highs and are getting a boost this morning on positive comments from billionaire investor Warren Buffet, who remarked that the US economy has bottomed out.
Currently, the Bond remains above support at the 25-Day and 100-Day Moving Averages. I recommend floating as long as these floors hold. I will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
I hope that your Wednesday is off to a great start already. There are only 75 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.
In the Markets today, The Consumer Price Index was reported slightly higher than expected this morning. When volatile food and energy were stripped out, however, the Core CPI was in line with expectations. The Bond market liked the report and initially added to yesterday's gains, but have since come down after the Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production both came in a little hotter than expected.
Stocks, on the other hand, are at 2009 highs and are getting a boost this morning on positive comments from billionaire investor Warren Buffet, who remarked that the US economy has bottomed out.
Currently, the Bond remains above support at the 25-Day and 100-Day Moving Averages. I recommend floating as long as these floors hold. I will continue to monitor the situation and let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 15, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Tuesday is off to a great start already. There are only 76 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.
In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning after the Producer Price Index came in more than double expectations, prompting fears of wholesale inflation. We'll get a better read on inflation tomorrow, when the Consumer Price Index is released.
In other news, Retail Sales for last month were reported at the largest monthly increase in three years, due largely to the Cash for Clunkers program. Additionally, the New York State Manufacturing Index climbed to its highest level since late 2007. However, this may indicate a temporary boost for manufacturing, rather than a true uptick in business activity.
Overall, Bonds have rallied back strong after bouncing off of support at the 100-Day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now as I watch to see if support holds. If a change of course is required, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
I hope that your Tuesday is off to a great start already. There are only 76 Days left until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity? I sure hope you are able to take advantage of this tremendous opportunity.
In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds are trading lower this morning after the Producer Price Index came in more than double expectations, prompting fears of wholesale inflation. We'll get a better read on inflation tomorrow, when the Consumer Price Index is released.
In other news, Retail Sales for last month were reported at the largest monthly increase in three years, due largely to the Cash for Clunkers program. Additionally, the New York State Manufacturing Index climbed to its highest level since late 2007. However, this may indicate a temporary boost for manufacturing, rather than a true uptick in business activity.
Overall, Bonds have rallied back strong after bouncing off of support at the 100-Day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now as I watch to see if support holds. If a change of course is required, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.
Friday, September 4, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 4, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope that your Friday is off to a great start. 87 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
Why The Day Before Labor Day Weekend is Tough on Home Affordability
Volume figures to be light on Wall Street today as traders get a head start on Labor Day weekend. It could make shopping for a mortgage a bona fide challenge. Expect rate volatility this morning and afternoon and, therefore, by extension, expect wild swings in the Home Affordability Index. As mortgage rates rise and fall, monthly mortgage payments do, too.
The relationship between "vacation days" and mortgage rate volatility stems from 2 facts -- (1) Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, and (2) mortgage-backed bonds trade just like stocks. You can't make a deal without matching a buyer and a seller at a specific price.
With so many traders on vacation today, therefore, there are fewer opportunities to match buyers and sellers. As a result, expect mortgage bond prices to rise and fall with more velocity than on a "normal" day -- especially because the August jobs report was just released.
So far this morning, mortgage rates have been jumpy and are higher versus Thursday's close.
That said, mortgage pricing is fluid, changing every minute of every day. Today, expect those changes to be exaggerated. If you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it because, before long, the rate could be gone.
I hope you have a great Friday.
I hope that your Friday is off to a great start. 87 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
Why The Day Before Labor Day Weekend is Tough on Home Affordability
Volume figures to be light on Wall Street today as traders get a head start on Labor Day weekend. It could make shopping for a mortgage a bona fide challenge. Expect rate volatility this morning and afternoon and, therefore, by extension, expect wild swings in the Home Affordability Index. As mortgage rates rise and fall, monthly mortgage payments do, too.
The relationship between "vacation days" and mortgage rate volatility stems from 2 facts -- (1) Conforming mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, and (2) mortgage-backed bonds trade just like stocks. You can't make a deal without matching a buyer and a seller at a specific price.
With so many traders on vacation today, therefore, there are fewer opportunities to match buyers and sellers. As a result, expect mortgage bond prices to rise and fall with more velocity than on a "normal" day -- especially because the August jobs report was just released.
So far this morning, mortgage rates have been jumpy and are higher versus Thursday's close.
That said, mortgage pricing is fluid, changing every minute of every day. Today, expect those changes to be exaggerated. If you have a chance to lock a favorable rate, consider taking it because, before long, the rate could be gone.
I hope you have a great Friday.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 03, 2009
Good Morning,
I hope your Thursday is off to a great start. 88 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds opened a little lower this morning, as Traders may be exercising caution ahead of today's Treasury Auction and tomorrow's official Jobs Report.
In other news, Initial Jobless Claims were reported slightly worse than expected and the four-week average of new claims rose to its highest level in eight weeks. Overall, the report indicates that the labor market is still having difficulty. This comes ahead of tomorrow's official Jobs Report, which is the best measure we have of real-time job creations and losses.
Working against Bonds is the Treasury Auction, the potential for a better-than-expected Jobs number, and other technical factors. Weighing it all out, I recommend locking at this time as rates could jump higher short term. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything I can do for you, please let me know. I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.
I hope your Thursday is off to a great start. 88 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
In the Markets today, Mortgage Bonds opened a little lower this morning, as Traders may be exercising caution ahead of today's Treasury Auction and tomorrow's official Jobs Report.
In other news, Initial Jobless Claims were reported slightly worse than expected and the four-week average of new claims rose to its highest level in eight weeks. Overall, the report indicates that the labor market is still having difficulty. This comes ahead of tomorrow's official Jobs Report, which is the best measure we have of real-time job creations and losses.
Working against Bonds is the Treasury Auction, the potential for a better-than-expected Jobs number, and other technical factors. Weighing it all out, I recommend locking at this time as rates could jump higher short term. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything I can do for you, please let me know. I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
YOUR Mortgage Minute -- September 1, 2009
Good Morning,
90 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
Another Sign Of Economic Recovery : Consumer Sentiment Rising
In a bit of good news for the economy, Consumer Sentiment fell to 4-month lows in August. The drop wasn't "good news", per se, but because it wasn't nearly as large as economists expected, Wall Street cheered it.
The index, jointly published by the University of Michigan and Reuters, measures how Americans feel about their situation today, and how they envision it six months in the future.
Since bottoming 5 months ago, consumer sentiment has added more than 10 points.
Rising Consumer Sentiment figures can foreshadow economic growth because confident consumers are more apt to spend money on big-ticket items including appliances, automobiles, and, of course, new homes.
The recent run of sentiment data is one more reason to believe a full economic recovery is underway.
That said, the Consumer Sentiment survey has its flaws.
For one, the survey's sample set includes just 500 households nationwide and that's not a true cross-section of America. And second, just because people feel more confident about their finances doesn't always mean they'll spend more money -- sometimes, they choose to save.
For now, though, stronger-than-expected sentiment data should help propel both retail sales and home sales volume through the fall season, and may even create some inflationary pressure on the economy.
If these levels are sustained, expect that mortgage rates will rise.
90 Days until the expiration of the $8,000 First Time Home Buyer's Tax Credit. Have you been in touch with a trusted Real Estate Agent yet to help you capture this fabulous opportunity?
Another Sign Of Economic Recovery : Consumer Sentiment Rising
In a bit of good news for the economy, Consumer Sentiment fell to 4-month lows in August. The drop wasn't "good news", per se, but because it wasn't nearly as large as economists expected, Wall Street cheered it.
The index, jointly published by the University of Michigan and Reuters, measures how Americans feel about their situation today, and how they envision it six months in the future.
Since bottoming 5 months ago, consumer sentiment has added more than 10 points.
Rising Consumer Sentiment figures can foreshadow economic growth because confident consumers are more apt to spend money on big-ticket items including appliances, automobiles, and, of course, new homes.
The recent run of sentiment data is one more reason to believe a full economic recovery is underway.
That said, the Consumer Sentiment survey has its flaws.
For one, the survey's sample set includes just 500 households nationwide and that's not a true cross-section of America. And second, just because people feel more confident about their finances doesn't always mean they'll spend more money -- sometimes, they choose to save.
For now, though, stronger-than-expected sentiment data should help propel both retail sales and home sales volume through the fall season, and may even create some inflationary pressure on the economy.
If these levels are sustained, expect that mortgage rates will rise.
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