YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 29, 2009

Good Afternoon,

It's Fed Day once again and that means the Fed will announce its Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement later today. Although the Fed won't adjust rates, the markets will be looking for comments about the impact of the stimulus plan on the economy.

In other news, the Advance Gross Domestic Product showed that the US economy contracted more than expected in the first quarter. The combined contraction of the last two quarters is the worst in more than 60 years. On a positive note, however, consumer spending rose at an annual pace of 2.2% last quarter.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds are fairly flat, as traders await comments from the Fed this afternoon. Therefore, I recommend floating to see how prices respond later today, If a change of course is required after the FOMC statements, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 28, 2009

Good Morning,

A special point of note here from your author: Today is Equal Pay Day, the symbolic day across the country when, on average, a woman's earnings now equal that of a man's for all of the previous year.

In the markets, bonds enjoyed a good day yesterday, as news of the Swine Flu put pressure on Stocks. But Bonds are off their best levels this morning, after testing a tough ceiling of resistance.

In other news, the government's "stress tests" for banks indicated that Bank of America and Citigroup may need to raise more capital. This isn't a major surprise, but does seem contrary to their recent favorable earnings reports. Also in the news, Consumer Confidence for April came in at its fourth largest gain in the history of the survey.

Currently, we are within .125% of the best rates in our nation's history. Each time prices have gotten near this level, they have pulled back lower and home loan rates have moved higher. Therefore, will recommend to lock in our gains now, especially if closing is drawing near (within the next two weeks).

I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 27, 2009

Good Morning,

Bonds are getting a boost today as investors seek a safe haven after hearing news of the spreading swine flu, which is pressuring Stocks in the US and around the globe.

In other news, Chrysler has received concessions from the United Auto Workers, while General Motors is phasing out its Pontiac division and offering a Bond exchange as part of its restructure.

With no economic reports of significance scheduled to be released for today and given the current boost in Bonds overall, I recommend floating your rate. I will let you know it the situation changes later today when the Treasury Department auctions off its supply of bills and notes. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 21, 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds opened higher in early trading this morning.

Yesterday, Stocks reacted negatively to talk that the government may convert its preferred bank shares to common stock--thereby making the US government and taxpayers the largest shareholders in the country's 19 largest banks. Also adding selling pressure to Stocks are some weak earnings by The Bank of New York, Caterpillar, Dupont, Coca Cola, Merck and United Technologies.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds are trying to claw their way above the 25-day Moving Average. I recommend floating for now, but be prepared to lock if sentiment changes and prices reverse lower. If prices do change course, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 17, 2009

Good Morning,

The corporate earnings season is in full swing with an influx of good news. General Electric, Citigroup and Google all reported better than expected earnings. These positive reports from different sectors of the economy are encouraging.

In other news, Consumer Sentiment also came in better than expected this morning.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds are trading below the 25-day Moving Average, after hitting that level earlier this morning and then moving lower. Since the next floor of support is another 40 basis points lower, I recommend locking. If the situation changes, I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your Friday. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 16, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that this note finds you well and enjoying your Thursday. There was mixed economic news this morning, as Housing Starts and Building Permits came in below expectations and showed that new home construction remains quite weak.

But on the positive side, there was some good news from the Labor Department as Initial Jobless Claims came in quite a bit below expectations. The past two weeks' improvement in Initial Jobless Claims is encouraging. And there was more good news from the financial sector as JPMorgan Chase reported better than expected earnings for the 1st quarter of 2009 on surging investment banking profits and fixed income trading revenue.

Currently, Bonds continue to trade near a key support level. I recommend careful floating for now, but I will certainly let you know if things change. In the meantime, I hope you have a fabulous rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

PS Care to follow me on Twitter.Com? @MortgageMinute if you do.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 15, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that this note finds you well. Happy TAX Day, or something like that!

In the financial sector today, Bonds are trying to shrug off hotter than expected core inflation numbers this morning, after finally muscling above the 25-Day Moving Average yesterday.

The overall Consumer Price Index (or CPI) for March came in lower than expected, bringing the year-over-year reading to its first negative number since August 1955. However, after removing very volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI came in slightly above expectations. Also in the news, the Empire State Manufacturing Index for April came in weak, but far better than expectations--which is also putting some selling pressure on Mortgage Bonds.

Currently, Bonds are holding above the 25-Day Moving Average. Therefore, I will return to recommend floating for now. Certainly, if the situation changes an d a change of direction is required, I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope you have a fabulous rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

PS Are you on twitter? Care to "Follow Me"? @MortgageMinute -- if you do.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 14, 2009

Good Morning,

Weak consumer spending and tame inflation numbers at the wholesale level were reported today. Retail Sales came in lower than expected as consumers are still keeping a tight grip on their wallets. Also, the Producer Price Index came in lower than estimates as energy prices declined.

Investment banking giant Goldman Sachs reported earnings that were much better than expected as the financial sector is all looking much better than expected on the heels of mark-to-market discussions and the eventual easing of the FASB ruling.

Mortgage Bonds have hit a ceiling of resistance and can't seem to break above that level, so for now I will continue to recommend a locking bias. Certainly, if the situation changes, I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 13, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope your Easter weekend was peaceful and full of much personal joy for you and those you care about.

In the markets this morning, Bond prices plunged below the 25-Day Moving Average last Thursday and are having a tough time moving back above it today. Stocks, on the other hand, are a little lower, but are showing signs of continuing their recent run higher.

In the news, Goldman Sachs is considering a multi-billion dollar share offering to help repay the $10 Billion it borrowed from the government's TARP program. Also, 1st quarter earnings reports are due this week from CitiGroup, General Electric, Google, Intel, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and many others. Their reports should give us a broad view of how major companies are coping with the economy.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds are facing a tough battle against the 25-Day Moving Average. Even though rates have deteriorated, mortgage rates are still traveling in a range that is near an all-time low. Therefore, I recommend LOCKING, especially if closing is near future.

I hope you have a great rest of your day (rainy here in Des Moines, Iowa). If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 09, 2009

Good Afternoon,

There was big news from the banking sector today, as Wells Fargo said it expects record 1st quarter earnings. In addition, the New York Times says the US banking system may be in better shape than most people think. Finally, the recent decision to relax mark to market accounting is already helping financial institutions!

In other news, Initial Jobless Claims came in far better than expectations. Currently, Stocks are rocketing higher on all the good news, and Bonds continue to test a key support level. I recommend cautious floating, but will certainly let you know if a change of course is needed.

The Bond market will close early today, and both Stocks and Bonds will be closed tomorrow for the holiday weekend. I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 08, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that you are enjoyng your day. In the financial markets, stocks are trading a bit higher today on some positive economic news.

Helping push Stocks higher is news that aluminum maker Alcoa anticipates a positive outlook going forward, despite reporting a loss for the first quarter. Additionally, homebuilders Stocks are higher in early trading on news that Pulte Homes agreed to purchase Centex for $1.3 Billion.

Later today, the Fed will release the Minutes from its March meeting, and the government will auction off $35 Billion worth of 3-Year Notes. These events may move the market later today, but for now, I recommend floating. I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 07, 2009

(Note: Due to computer challenges, this note was written earlier today, but was not able to be posted until this evening -- Ed.)

Good Morning,

Bonds are modestly higher in early trading this morning, while Stocks are sinking due to more negative talk about the financial system.

In the news today, the International Monetary Fund will reportedly release new forecasts that suggest toxic assets in the US could reach about $3 Trillion, which is $1 Trillion more than the forecast three months ago. Also adding selling pressure to Stocks is word from hedge fund giant George Soros that the US banking system is insolvent and that the economy won't recover in 2009.

With Stocks under selling pressure currently and Bonds holding above a floor of support, I recommend floating for now. If the situation changes, however, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 06, 2009

Good Afternoon,

After several weeks of tremendous gains in the stock market, stocks are under some selling pressure as a result of bank analyst, Mike Mayo, spewing out a negative forecast which includes his thoughts that loan losses by financial institutions will exceed the levels seen from times of the Great Depression. The pressure in Stocks has given Mortgage Bonds a modest boost and prices remain just above support at the 25-day Moving Average.

However, with the recent changes to mark-to-market, I feel that there will be a positive impact on economics and the overall operations of the financial institutions because it will free up their capital ratios and allow them to do more lending, ultimately leading to higher profit potential.

There are few economic reports set for release this week, as the market will close early Thursday and also be closed all day on Friday for the Holy Week Holiday. There will however be additional Bond supply hitting the markets later this week, which could have an impact on the markets at that time.

Right now, since Mortgage Bonds are trying to cling to the 25-day Moving Average, I recommend carefully floating. Certainly, if a change of course is required, I will be in touch. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your Monday and that your week is off to a FABULOUS start. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 3, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a fabulous start.

The Labor Department reported that the economy lost 663,000 jobs in March, close to expectations of -660,000, and pushing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began in December of 2007 to 5.1 million.

January's numbers were revised lower by -86,000, however, one slim ray of hope was that there were no revisions for February. The Unemployment Rate rose to 8.5%, inline with estimates and up from 8.1% in February.

Just one short day after mark to market was ruled to be relaxed by FASB, I am hearing stories of banks already saying they may not need to sell assets to raise capital, which is encouraging to the financial system.

Mortgage Bonds have improved from their worst levels of the morning and for now I will recommend very cautiously floating, but again if closing is drawing near, locking in the gains now would be appropriate.

I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please do not hesistate to ask.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 2, 2009

Good Morning,

There was big news this morning as the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) voted favorably to relax mark-to-market and help financial institutions. The big change is to allow financial companies to use alternate models, like cash flow analysis, in marking assets. This will significantly reduce the writedowns banks have been taking on investments like mortgage-backed securities, and therefore encourage financing and help money flow again in our economy.

Since the March 12th Congressional hearing on mark to market, Stocks have risen 23% just on speculation a change in mark to market could be coming. Also helping Stocks is optimism that the G20 meeting underway in London will agree on ways to pull global economies out of the current recession.

In other news, the number of people collecting state unemployment benefits reached yet another new record, jumping to 5.73 million - a level that is 96% greater than in the prior year!

I recommend LOCKING ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs Report as Bonds have fallen to their worst levels of the day. I will let you know if a change of course is needed, but now is a great time to lock in any gains, especially on any loans closing in the next 3-5 business days.

In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- April 1, 2009

Good Afternoon,

No April Fools' jokes here...

The ADP numbers showed 742,000 jobs lost in March, far worse than expectations of 663,000 jobs lost and the worst reading in ADP's nine years of reporting as the labor market continues to struggle.

However, there is a ray of hope for the labor market. Earlier today, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an executive outplacement company, released some findings on the job front that were somewhat favorable, stating that planned layoffs at US firms fell in March to their lowest in six months. Not too much else to report at this time.

Mortgage Bonds have so far been fairly unfazed by the morning's news and are currently trading just slightly lower on the day. For now, I will continue to recommend Floating. Certainly, if anything prompts a change in course, I will definitely let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.