YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 29, 2009

Good Morning!

Happy Friday, I hope your day is off to a fabulous start so far. Its starting out to be a great day for mortgages...

Big news hit the mortgage industry today regarding the $8,000 tax credit available to first-time homebuyers. According to the Federal Housing Administration, first-time homebuyers can apply the new $8,000 tax credit toward the purchase costs of a FHA-insured home. This is hot of the presses and more details will be released soon.

Also in the news today, the Commerce Department estimates that Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter fell at an annual rate of 5.7%, which was better than initial estimates. This news indicates that the recession may be slowing down and turning more moderate.

Currently, Bond prices are improving a great deal on yesterday's gains. For now, I recommend floating to see if prices can continue to improve off the sturdy floor of support at the 200-Day Moving Average. As always with volitility like this, be prepared to lock if the situation changes. I will certainly keep you posted as things develop.

In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day and a fabulous weekend ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 28, 2009

Good Afternoon,

WOW! What a day yesterday was!

After losing a staggering 363 basis points since last Thursday, Mortgage Bonds are trying to regain some ground. Yesterday, Mortgage Bonds had their worst one-day performance since October, due to the added supply in the market from the Treasury auctions and the increased number of refinances.

In other news, Initial Jobless Claims were better than expectations, but a higher revision to the prior week's reading offset the slightly positive headline number. Durable Goods Orders in April also came in a bit better than expectations, while New Home Sales were just under estimates.

The recent price declines have pushed Bonds into an 'oversold' state, which means prices could be ripe for a bounce or reversal higher. However, Bonds will have to break through several ceilings of resistance in the process. I recommend floating to see if Bonds regain some footing, but be ready to lock if Bonds are unable to do so, because rates could turn higher mighty quickly. I will certainly keep you posted as things develop.

I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute

Good Afternoon,

I hope that this note finds you well and having a fabulous Wednesday so far.

In the markets, stocks enjoyed a good day yesterday and Mortgage Bonds were pushed lower, on the heels of a better-than-expected Consumer Confidence Report. So far today, Stocks are treading water, but are hampered by talk of General Motors heading for bankruptcy.

In other news, Existing Home Sales came in higher than expectations. Additionally, the inventory of unsold homes rose slightly, but is still well below the 11-month supply level seen last November.

Overall, Mortgage Bonds have fallen significantly the last couple of days and prices appear headed down to the next floor of support. Therefore, I recommend LOCKING your mortgage rate at this time as rates appears to be headed up for the near future. I will continue to monitor the situation and keep you posted of any major developments.

In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 26, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that this note finds you well and that you had a chance to really enjoy the Memorial Holiday weekend. Hopefully, you were able to take pause to remember those who have fought for our liberty before us so that we may enjoy life today.

In the financial sector today, News of North Korea's short-range missile tests and nuclear detonation has pressured Stocks lower this morning and given Mortgage Bonds a slight boost, as investors seek safe haven for their investment dollars.

In other news, the Consumer Confidence report as well as the $40 Billion worth of 2-Year Treasury Notes due out today may impact the markets later this afternoon.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds are attempting to stabilize after a couple of bad days. Therefore, I recommend CAREFUL floating for now. I will watch the trading action carefully, and let you know if a change of course is needed.

In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 22, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Friday is going great for you so far.

In the markets today, Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged from yesterday's sell off, which pressured prices lower throughout the entire day.

In the news, Treasury announced that it was going to sell $162 Billion worth of Bonds next week. That is an enormous amount of paper that has to be absorbed by the market and the additional supply may make it difficult for Bond prices to make any meaningful gains.

Currently, the Bond is sitting near an important level of support. Therefore, I recommend floating for now if you are a ways away from closing, but chances are good that a lock may be in order if a closing is near, especially in anticipation of next week's Treasury sales.

Since the Bond market will be closed Monday for the Memorial Day Holiday, my next update will be next Tuesday. In the meantime, I hope you have a fabulous rest of your day, and a great, fun-filled and relaxing weekend ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 19, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope your Tuesday is off to a terrific start so far.

What a day it was yesterday. With Stocks surging higher, Bond prices were pushed lower, and fell below both the 25 and 50-day Moving Averages (MA). Their decline was halted at the 100-day MA, a floor the Bond is trading near at the moment.

Housing Starts and Building Permits fell to record lows in April and though the numbers were weak, in the long run this could be a good thing because with fewer new homes being built, it will give the housing market opportunity to burn off existing inventory.

Stocks are taking a breather from their run higher yesterday, and Bonds are presently resting just above the floor of support at the 100-day Moving Average. So for now, I will recommend to Float as we watch this floor. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day (fabulous weather here - hope the same where you are). If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 18, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope this note finds you well and that your week is off to a terrific start!

In the financial markets today, Mortgage Bonds are near unchanged levels, but off the best levels seen earlier in the day. Stocks are starting the week on an upbeat note with Bank of America receiving a very strong buy recommendation by being put on Goldman Sachs conviction buy list. Lowe’s Companies posted significant positive earnings, also adding to the boost in Stocks.

Oil prices are moving higher in advance of the summer driving season. Unleaded gasoline has risen every day for the past three weeks and is now at $2.31 a gallon, on average, nationally.

There are no economic reports set for release today, however there are several key reports this week, which include Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims, that will give us a better look at the current condition of our economy.

With prices in a sideways trend near the 25-day Moving Average, I recommend carefully floating for now. If the situation changes and a different course of action is required, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope the rest of your day is great for you. If there is ever anything I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 15, 2009

Good Morning,

Happy Friday! I hope that your day is off to a terrific start.

Economic news was abundant on Wall Street today ranging from a flat Consumer Price Index report, although Core CPI was a little hotter than expected, a better than expected New York State Manufacturing Index and a rosier reading on Consumer Sentiment.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher was speaking today in front of the Texas Bankers Association saying that "the U.S. economy has pulled back from the edge of the abyss".

Mortgage Bonds are trying to stay above the 25 and 50 Day Moving Average floor of support. For now, I will recommend to Cautiously Float while these levels hold, but be prepared to move towards a Locking bias should the situation change. If changes develop, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, here's to a great weekend ahead!

If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 14, 2009

Good Afternoon,

There has been a mix of economic data released earlier this morning, as Initial Jobless Claims were reported worse than expected. This is especially disappointing after there had been some signs of improvement in the labor markets, based on the previously published reports.

Also, inflation at the wholesale level moved higher in April, driven by an increase in food prices. Any signs of increased inflation will be perceived negatively by the Mortgage Bond market, and as a result, Bond prices have been testing underlying support causing mortgage rates to consider increasing a bit.

On Tuesday, The Department of Housing and Urban Development's Federal Housing Administration said it will allow first-time homebuyers to use the federal tax credit of up to $8,000 for a downpayment at closing, via a secured instrument outside the main purchase mortgage. Since it is still in its infancy, I will keep you posted when more details of this new program are released.

For now, I recommend floating while Bonds continue to test underlying support. I will let you know if a change of course becomes necessary. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- 05.12.2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your day is off to a fabulous start. Mortgage Rates continue to stay at record low levels.

In the news today, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last night that the results from the stress tests on the 19 largest US Banks yielded "encouraging" results and has calmed the Stock markets after yesterday’s sell off.

Mortgage Bonds are also little changed but have managed to weather some early morning profit taking that had pressured prices lower after the recent gains.

A look at "technical" signals in the market show the price of the Bond presently leaning up against a dual layer ceiling of resistance at both the 50 and 100-day Moving Averages.
If Stocks falter, it would give Mortgage Bonds the momentum needed to push through the overhead ceiling. That being said, I can certainly recommend careful floating for now, but be ready to lock if the market dictates.

In the meantime, I hope the rest of your day is terrific for you. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- 05.11.2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that this note finds you well. Belated Happy Mother's Day to those in this audience qualifying for it :)

In the financial sector today, Mortgage Bonds were off to a good start this morning at the expense of Stocks being sold off. This morning's market activity was being fueled by reports that many banks are taking action to repay TARP funds back to the government. While this can be looked at as a healthy sign for the economy, the way the banks are raising capital is by selling newly created shares of company Stock, which is a bad thing for the short-term financial situation of Stocks.

Stocks in general may certainly need a breather after the very sharp 30% plus rise over the past couple of months. I'm certain many of you may have noticed this in your portfolios, if you have the courage to look at them. Some of the euphoria surrounding some recent economic reports may be overdone as the unemployment rate may be as high as 15% when individuals who have to settle for part time employment are considered. And, last Friday’s job number could also be subject to future downward revisions.

I recommend floating mortgage rates for now with the flow of money out of Stocks and into Bonds, but I will watch closely for any change in the market, and I will certainly keep you posted should a change in position be necessary.

In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your Monday and have a fabulous week ahead! If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

PS Are you following me on Twitter? @MortgageMinute is where you will find me there.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 05, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Tuesday is off to a fabulous start!

In the financial Sector, Stocks staged a HUGE rally yesterday, and the S&P 500 climbed into positive territory for the first time in 2009. Better still, the boost in Stocks suprisingly did not weigh on Mortgage Bonds, which enjoyed a nice ride yesterday. Often when stocks rise mortgage bonds will fall and Mortgage Rates will climb along with the Stock Market as a result, since the supply of money is theoretically fixed.

This morning, Stocks got off to a sluggish start after government stress tests revealed that ten large banks may need to raise capital to endure the ongoing recession. Mortgage Bonds, however, are higher on the news.

For now, I recommend continued cautious floating of your mortgage rate to see if prices can once again retest resistance at the top of the trading range. I will keep you posted on any changes that might affect your positions. In the meantime, I truly hope that you have a great day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- May 04, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your week is off to a fabulous start!

In the markets today, the S&P 500 is testing a strong ceiling of resistance this morning. Stocks have enjoyed a strong move higher over the past couple of months and could improve more if prices break through the ceiling. If not, the Stock Market may be in for a decline.

In other news, Warren Buffet said he is very optimistic about the future of the economy and is seeing signs of a turnaround in the residential real estate market. That makes now the perfect time to benefit from today's affordable home prices and historically low interest rates. After all, as the economy moves higher, both interest rates and housing prices will follow suit.

Currently, Mortgage Bonds remain above a triple layer floor of support. Therefore, I recommend floating for now. If a change of course is needed, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy your week and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.