Thursday, January 28, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 28, 2009

Good Morning,
I hope that your Thursday is off to a great start! Mortgage Bonds are still holding above support this morning at the 200-Day Moving Average, after digesting lots of news.

Yesterday, the Fed confirmed that its Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will end March 31, 2010. In today's news, Initial Jobless Claims showed that the labor market is still struggling, as last week's claims were higher than expected. Durable Goods Orders also significantly disappointed, coming in much lower than anticipated.

I recommend floating for now, as Bond prices try to hold above the 200-Day Moving Average. But be prepared to lock if the situation changes, especially with another Treasury auction on tap this afternoon. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 27, 2010

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is off to a great start. In the news, Bonds are higher this morning, as the markets anxiously await news from the US Government.

The Treasury Department's auction of $42 Billion in 5-year Notes at 1 pm Eastern Time. At 2:15 pm Eastern Time, the Fed will release its Rate Decision and Policy Statement, which could move markets depending on what the Fed says about rates in the future and its Mortgage Backed Securities purchase program. Finally, the markets could see movement today as experts and investors speculate about President Obama's first official State of the Union address.

For now, I recommend floating, as I monitor how the day's events unfold and impact Bonds. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

Friday, January 22, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- 01.22.2010

God Morning,
I hope that your Friday is off to a great start!

In the markets today, Bonds are currently trading near unchanged and sit pressed right against the ceiling of resistance at the 50-Day Moving Average.

The continued weakness in Stocks has been a big help for Bonds, which have benefited from some Stock sale proceeds being parked into Bonds. If Stocks are unable to regain their footing, we may see a continued slide lower in Stocks, which could benefit Bonds.

Since the trading in Bonds will be driven mainly by Stocks today, I recommend floating for now. I will continue to monitor the markets and let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 19, 2010

Good Morning,

I hope that your Tuesday is off to a terrific start so far. Mortgage Bonds are facing a tough challenge at the 200-Day Moving Average and so far have been pushed beneath this important level.

In the news, inflation was reported higher than expected in both the UK and India--and both countries expect inflation to continue higher around the world. If inflation does tick higher, interest rates will increase along with it. This is one more reason to take advantage of today's low interest rates.

With Bonds dropping below an important level of support, I recommend locking now to take advantage of recent gains. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Mortgage Revolution Edition

Editors Note: As those of you who follow my blog regularly know, I try to limit my posts to something that can be read in a minute or less, giving an update on current market conditions and other pertinent information; this post is going to be longer than a minute but I really wanted to take some time and share my experiences with you. So, without further adieu, let's roll...


One week ago today, I arrived in Atlanta for the Mortgage Revolution Conference. At the outset, I knew this was going to be a different experience than my previous seminar visits. When I considered whether or not to come in the first place, I had a long heart to heart with Mark Green, one of the event organizers, about why this was going to be different than anything I had ever previously experienced. Then Mark was so gracious enough to put my name in the hat as a volunteer coordinator for the Midwest Region, to help stir attendance and really drive the MRev theme home down the stretch. Well that sealed it for me, because anyone who knows me will tell you that my implementation skills are top of the line. Give me a project and ask me to take initiative to see it through, and it will be done right -- the first time. So in the weeks leading up to the event, I was on the phone and on email with the other VOLUNTEER regional coordinators sizing up what needed to be done and implementing the items to bring us to the conference in full stride.

Then Saturday comes, and I fly into Atlanta and arrive late that evening and catch a 45 minute van ride to the hotel. I really didn't think much of it at first, just a simple shuttle ride over. In the van with me, though, happens to be Robert Mahaffey, President of 3rd Street Financial Corporation in West Chester, OH and another MREV attendee. So, we get to talking right away, first a little bit about our families and then we start talking shop, what's working, where the struggles are for each us and our unique perspectives coming from opposite sides of the origination fence, me from one of the world's largest financial services institution and Robert from a smaller independent origination firm -- all of this before the conference even starts! Robert shares ideas with me of things that he has done to be successful in his marketplace and offers unselfish advice for where he has found success. One thing I learned right away -- Mark Green was right along -- this was a true revolution I was going to experience and having Robert in the van ride over was just the start of it.

When day One came, I jumped right in helping organize Name Tags and other small jobs that needed to be done prior to the start of the conference. Robert was there too, lending a hand. Our First Day saw main stage talks by Ric Edelman, #1 Independent Financial Advisor in the Nation as Ranked by Barron's and Dave Savage. The afternoon found breakout sessions, smaller group settings that allowed us to really dig deep in smaller track lines -- Sales and Marketing, Internet and Social Media, and Finding your Niche.

In each session, I was totally amazed by so many items, now where to begin... First, Mortgage Revolution was a NON PROFIT event, there was no selling from the stage whatsoever. The event had sponsors, with booths outside the meeting hall, but through it all not a word was mentioned about anything for sale. Second, all of the presenters were producing mortgage originators or branch managers on the front lines, sharing their success stories of what was working for them in their marketplace. Third, the speakers came out a love for our industry and a goal to bring the professionalism back to our industry, something we lost a few years ago and are continually striving to regain. The speakers were not compensated. They simply came to share what was working for them IN their business, so that we, as Revolutionaries, could work ON our business. Finally, with all of the changes to mortgage regulations and disclosure requirements over the past year, one might think the tone of the event could turn bad really quick. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Our challenges were mentioned, but then so were opportunities that have been made available to overcome those same challenges.

Day Two came and greeted me with Main Stage presentations by Sue Woodard, leading a terrific discussion on becoming an expert in the marketplace, helping us understand the fundamentals to mortgage lending and pricing and Stewart Hunter and Jim McMahan, leading a great discussion on values based lending, something that had been neglected in our industry for quite some time. One interesting item of note, in small groups as well as the main stage events, whenever a presenter would ask a question about who is doing this or implementing that, so many of the attendees hands would go up. You see, yes we were only 300 strong, but we were 300 of the best and brightest in our industry. 300 mortgage professionals who took time out of our business to work ON our business. We invested the time and money to make a difference for the people we partner with and help our clients achieve their dreams of home ownership sharing a smorgasbord of strategies that can work really well in all of our respective markets.

The Evening of Day Two brought the "un"conference -- the World Domination event. While the title may sound intimidating, it was anything but that. I came back to the optional evening session, energized from the day's speakers and ready to learn more, in a casual, relaxed environment. We took over one of the breakout rooms and ended going around the room passing the microphone and sharing one or two ideas that are working in our market or one thing that we are particularly proud of. It was so intense, 4 hours of continual, extra learning, time that could have been spent relaxing in the hotel, was instead spent trying to gleam yet another idea that I might want to implement for my practice.

Day Three, the finale, arrived and man was I pumped!! Two intense days of training were behind me and now the capstone, the culmination of it all - it was somewhat bittersweet, for I knew the end was near for this conference, but it was just the beginning of the Revolution process, more events are being planned for later in this year around the country.

Day Three gave us a terrific presentation by Frank Garay and Brian Stevens, on video marketing as well as a passionate discussion by Roberto Monaco on the power of storytelling in our presentations and businesses. Wow! What a tremendous way to capstone that event. After a couple more breakout sessions, Tim Davis ended the event by reminding us that Goals are For Soccer Players. Take one idea of the many learned and apply it and then when you are done, apply it some more. Apply it until you know in your gut that the idea is something that will stay with you in your business. Tim's humor and his down to earth style really reminded me that we are all professionals in this business, with a story to tell, hands to hold and we are part of an industry we need to bring back to the highest levels. I know I can do it and I have 300 of the top originators in the country with me every step of the way to help right my ship should I ever deviate from the prescribed path.

Monday, January 11, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 11, 2010

Good Afternoon,

Mortgage Bonds are trading higher so far today and have been pretty active.

There are no economic reports set for release today but 4th Quarter corporate earnings season kicks off today. Bonds often move opposite of stocks, and while a strong earning season is good news for the economy, it may also add pressure to Bonds. Also this week the Treasury will auction $84 Billion in new debt supply, and Bonds could face additional selling pressure if the auction results are poor.

I recommend floating for now and I will let you know if anything changes. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

Thursday, January 7, 2010

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 7, 2009

Good Morning,
I hope that your Thursday is off to a terrific start already. In the markets today, Mortgage Bonds have been VERY volatile this morning, opening sharply lower but have since traded back to unchanged levels.

Initial claims for the latest week rose to 434,000, slightly below estimates of 439,000. Continuing Claims fell to 4.8M from 4.9M in the previous week but the number is dropping because people's benefits are expiring and these same people are getting recategorized under emergency extended benefits - which don't count as Continuing Claims.

The report comes ahead of tomorrow’s Non-farm payrolls where it is expected that there were 35,000 jobs lost. This makes the chances of an upside surprise easier to attain, since the bar has now been set lower. And remember that an upside surprise will hurt bond prices. Should the number show job gains - it will be the first month of gains since December 2007.

I feel that the best approach would be to lock ahead of tommorrow's release, expecially if you have a closing drawing near and are still floating your rate. Certainly, if the situation changes I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.