YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 28, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Thursday is off to a great start! Mortgage Bonds are still holding above support this morning at the 200-Day Moving Average, after digesting lots of news.

Yesterday, the Fed confirmed that its Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will end March 31, 2010. In today's news, Initial Jobless Claims showed that the labor market is still struggling, as last week's claims were higher than expected. Durable Goods Orders also significantly disappointed, coming in much lower than anticipated.

I recommend floating for now, as Bond prices try to hold above the 200-Day Moving Average. But be prepared to lock if the situation changes, especially with another Treasury auction on tap this afternoon. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 27, 2010

Good Morning,

I hope that your Wednesday is off to a great start. In the news, Bonds are higher this morning, as the markets anxiously await news from the US Government.

The Treasury Department's auction of $42 Billion in 5-year Notes at 1 pm Eastern Time. At 2:15 pm Eastern Time, the Fed will release its Rate Decision and Policy Statement, which could move markets depending on what the Fed says about rates in the future and its Mortgage Backed Securities purchase program. Finally, the markets could see movement today as experts and investors speculate about President Obama's first official State of the Union address.

For now, I recommend floating, as I monitor how the day's events unfold and impact Bonds. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- 01.22.2010

God Morning,

I hope that your Friday is off to a great start!

In the markets today, Bonds are currently trading near unchanged and sit pressed right against the ceiling of resistance at the 50-Day Moving Average.

The continued weakness in Stocks has been a big help for Bonds, which have benefited from some Stock sale proceeds being parked into Bonds. If Stocks are unable to regain their footing, we may see a continued slide lower in Stocks, which could benefit Bonds.

Since the trading in Bonds will be driven mainly by Stocks today, I recommend floating for now. I will continue to monitor the markets and let you know if a change of course is needed. In the meantime, I truly hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 19, 2010

Good Morning,

I hope that your Tuesday is off to a terrific start so far. Mortgage Bonds are facing a tough challenge at the 200-Day Moving Average and so far have been pushed beneath this important level.

In the news, inflation was reported higher than expected in both the UK and India--and both countries expect inflation to continue higher around the world. If inflation does tick higher, interest rates will increase along with it. This is one more reason to take advantage of today's low interest rates.

With Bonds dropping below an important level of support, I recommend locking now to take advantage of recent gains. If the situation changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Mortgage Revolution Edition

Editors Note: As those of you who follow my blog regularly know, I try to limit my posts to something that can be read in a minute or less, giving an update on current market conditions and other pertinent information; this post is going to be longer than a minute but I really wanted to take some time and share my experiences with you. So, without further adieu, let's roll...


One week ago today, I arrived in Atlanta for the Mortgage Revolution Conference. At the outset, I knew this was going to be a different experience than my previous seminar visits. When I considered whether or not to come in the first place, I had a long heart to heart with Mark Green, one of the event organizers, about why this was going to be different than anything I had ever previously experienced. Then Mark was so gracious enough to put my name in the hat as a volunteer coordinator for the Midwest Region, to help stir attendance and really drive the MRev theme home down the stretch. Well that sealed it for me, because anyone who knows me will tell you that my implementation skills are top of the line. Give me a project and ask me to take initiative to see it through, and it will be done right -- the first time. So in the weeks leading up to the event, I was on the phone and on email with the other VOLUNTEER regional coordinators sizing up what needed to be done and implementing the items to bring us to the conference in full stride.

Then Saturday comes, and I fly into Atlanta and arrive late that evening and catch a 45 minute van ride to the hotel. I really didn't think much of it at first, just a simple shuttle ride over. In the van with me, though, happens to be Robert Mahaffey, President of 3rd Street Financial Corporation in West Chester, OH and another MREV attendee. So, we get to talking right away, first a little bit about our families and then we start talking shop, what's working, where the struggles are for each us and our unique perspectives coming from opposite sides of the origination fence, me from one of the world's largest financial services institution and Robert from a smaller independent origination firm -- all of this before the conference even starts! Robert shares ideas with me of things that he has done to be successful in his marketplace and offers unselfish advice for where he has found success. One thing I learned right away -- Mark Green was right along -- this was a true revolution I was going to experience and having Robert in the van ride over was just the start of it.

When day One came, I jumped right in helping organize Name Tags and other small jobs that needed to be done prior to the start of the conference. Robert was there too, lending a hand. Our First Day saw main stage talks by Ric Edelman, #1 Independent Financial Advisor in the Nation as Ranked by Barron's and Dave Savage. The afternoon found breakout sessions, smaller group settings that allowed us to really dig deep in smaller track lines -- Sales and Marketing, Internet and Social Media, and Finding your Niche.

In each session, I was totally amazed by so many items, now where to begin... First, Mortgage Revolution was a NON PROFIT event, there was no selling from the stage whatsoever. The event had sponsors, with booths outside the meeting hall, but through it all not a word was mentioned about anything for sale. Second, all of the presenters were producing mortgage originators or branch managers on the front lines, sharing their success stories of what was working for them in their marketplace. Third, the speakers came out a love for our industry and a goal to bring the professionalism back to our industry, something we lost a few years ago and are continually striving to regain. The speakers were not compensated. They simply came to share what was working for them IN their business, so that we, as Revolutionaries, could work ON our business. Finally, with all of the changes to mortgage regulations and disclosure requirements over the past year, one might think the tone of the event could turn bad really quick. Nothing could have been further from the truth. Our challenges were mentioned, but then so were opportunities that have been made available to overcome those same challenges.

Day Two came and greeted me with Main Stage presentations by Sue Woodard, leading a terrific discussion on becoming an expert in the marketplace, helping us understand the fundamentals to mortgage lending and pricing and Stewart Hunter and Jim McMahan, leading a great discussion on values based lending, something that had been neglected in our industry for quite some time. One interesting item of note, in small groups as well as the main stage events, whenever a presenter would ask a question about who is doing this or implementing that, so many of the attendees hands would go up. You see, yes we were only 300 strong, but we were 300 of the best and brightest in our industry. 300 mortgage professionals who took time out of our business to work ON our business. We invested the time and money to make a difference for the people we partner with and help our clients achieve their dreams of home ownership sharing a smorgasbord of strategies that can work really well in all of our respective markets.

The Evening of Day Two brought the "un"conference -- the World Domination event. While the title may sound intimidating, it was anything but that. I came back to the optional evening session, energized from the day's speakers and ready to learn more, in a casual, relaxed environment. We took over one of the breakout rooms and ended going around the room passing the microphone and sharing one or two ideas that are working in our market or one thing that we are particularly proud of. It was so intense, 4 hours of continual, extra learning, time that could have been spent relaxing in the hotel, was instead spent trying to gleam yet another idea that I might want to implement for my practice.

Day Three, the finale, arrived and man was I pumped!! Two intense days of training were behind me and now the capstone, the culmination of it all - it was somewhat bittersweet, for I knew the end was near for this conference, but it was just the beginning of the Revolution process, more events are being planned for later in this year around the country.

Day Three gave us a terrific presentation by Frank Garay and Brian Stevens, on video marketing as well as a passionate discussion by Roberto Monaco on the power of storytelling in our presentations and businesses. Wow! What a tremendous way to capstone that event. After a couple more breakout sessions, Tim Davis ended the event by reminding us that Goals are For Soccer Players. Take one idea of the many learned and apply it and then when you are done, apply it some more. Apply it until you know in your gut that the idea is something that will stay with you in your business. Tim's humor and his down to earth style really reminded me that we are all professionals in this business, with a story to tell, hands to hold and we are part of an industry we need to bring back to the highest levels. I know I can do it and I have 300 of the top originators in the country with me every step of the way to help right my ship should I ever deviate from the prescribed path.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 11, 2010

Good Afternoon,

Mortgage Bonds are trading higher so far today and have been pretty active.

There are no economic reports set for release today but 4th Quarter corporate earnings season kicks off today. Bonds often move opposite of stocks, and while a strong earning season is good news for the economy, it may also add pressure to Bonds. Also this week the Treasury will auction $84 Billion in new debt supply, and Bonds could face additional selling pressure if the auction results are poor.

I recommend floating for now and I will let you know if anything changes. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day and if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 7, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Thursday is off to a terrific start already. In the markets today, Mortgage Bonds have been VERY volatile this morning, opening sharply lower but have since traded back to unchanged levels.

Initial claims for the latest week rose to 434,000, slightly below estimates of 439,000. Continuing Claims fell to 4.8M from 4.9M in the previous week but the number is dropping because people's benefits are expiring and these same people are getting recategorized under emergency extended benefits - which don't count as Continuing Claims.

The report comes ahead of tomorrow’s Non-farm payrolls where it is expected that there were 35,000 jobs lost. This makes the chances of an upside surprise easier to attain, since the bar has now been set lower. And remember that an upside surprise will hurt bond prices. Should the number show job gains - it will be the first month of gains since December 2007.

I feel that the best approach would be to lock ahead of tommorrow's release, expecially if you have a closing drawing near and are still floating your rate. Certainly, if the situation changes I will let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- January 5, 2010

Good Morning,

After rallying higher yesterday, Stocks are taking a breather this morning, which is benefitting Bonds and helping Mortgage Bonds break free from the downward trend they’ve been trading within since late November.

In other the news, the recently released Pending Home Sales report showed a decline of 16.0% for November. Quite a bit higher than was originally anticipated.

For now, I recommend floating to see if Bonds will continue to add to their gains. I will certainly let you know if a change of course is needed throughout the day. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 12.27.2009-12.31.2009

Treasury securities were hit hard again this week due to positive economic reports and so-so demand for government debt at the three auctions that were held last week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves inversely to price, hit 3.87% on Thursday before closing at 3.83% -- the final day of trading for 2009. This is its highest level since June. One year ago it was at 2.09%.

Because of upcoming auctions, on Monday traders sold, pushing prices down and yields up. Signs of an upturn in retail sales also sent money to Wall Street. However, the auction drew strong demand, making it the most successful of the week.

On Tuesday the first of the scant economic indicators showed consumer confidence rising to 52.9 in December from 50.7. Even though it was a notch below expectations, the increase put pressure on Treasuries. In the bigger picture, however, it still has a long way to go before a level of economic stability (90) is reached. A reading of 100+ indicates economic growth.

The Case/Shiller report on home prices in the 20 largest cities in the U.S. came in flat in October after four months of increases, which would have allowed bonds to hold near current levels. But the rise in the dollar, a sign of economic improvement, sent yields up.

The Chicago PMI index of manufacturing conditions in December rose to 60 from 56.1. Also weighing on bonds was Wednesday's auction of 7-year notes, which was fairly well received but lacked support from foreign buyers and institutional investors.

The final dagger came on Thursday, when first-time unemployment claims fell by 22,000 to 432,000 during the week ended Dec. 26 -- the lowest since July 2008. Analysts had expected claims to rise to 460,000. This decline points to a strengthening economy, which lessens the need for investors to put their money in safe investments.

Although we have a way to go, when claims hit the 350,000 mark, it would indicate positive job growth. And we're inching closer to that number just about every week. Job growth also hints of future inflation -- the sworn enemy of bonds -- as it devalues their worth over time.

The Mortgage Bankers Association was closed last week, so numbers for applications for the weeks ended Dec. 24 and Dec. 31 will be out next week.

This is a normal week for economic releases, but Friday could be a tough one if analysts are correct about jobs losses in December. Some believe the unemployment report will show that no jobs were lost last month, which would likely ignite selling in Treasuries. Although the data could be skewed due to the holidays, it would likely have a detrimental short-term effect on Treasury yields. However, the same folks predicting zero job losses see the unemployment rate holding at 10%.

The rest of the week's reports are more acceptable from a bond trader's point of view. On Monday construction spending for November should show a 0.5% decline, versus a flat reading in October. Separately, the ISM index on nationwide manufacturing conditions is expected to edge up to 54.0 from 53.6, which would probably not be a big enough gain to have much of an effect on traders.

Factory orders for November come out on Tuesday, and they're expected to rise 0.5%, which is slightly less than October's 0.6% increase. The other indicator, the ISM index on the service sector, could have more impact. It is expected to rise to 50.5 from 48.7. Although it is less than a two-point increase, it would top the 50 mark, indicating sector expansion.

The only report due Thursday is weekly unemployment claims for the week ended January 2. If they drop again, this will put pressure on Treasuries, but some traders might be willing to wait until Friday's full report to make any moves.

Also due on Friday is the report on wholesale inventories for November. Because it (almost) always follows the monthly unemployment report, it usually gets kicked to the curb. In November inventories are expected to fall 0.1%, versus a 0.3% increase in October. Falling inventories will eventually ramp up the need for manufacturers to rebuild inventories, which could boost employment.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 30. 2009

Good Morning,

Mortgage Bonds are higher so far this morning. Stocks are taking a breather and the money from Stocks looks to be moving back into Bonds, helping prices move higher.

The Bond has been able to move higher this week in spite of the so-so auction results. But this afternoon’s auction of $32 Billion of 7-Year Notes carries more inflation risk to investors due to the longer maturity date. So I will be watching to see how the market reacts to the auction.

For now, I recommend floating to see if prices can build on the positive technical momentum, and potentially climb back up towards the next ceiling of resistance. If anything changes, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 12/21-12/24, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope you had a terrific Christmas and are enjoying all the festivities that this time of year brings. Here's a look back at what happened in the markets.

It felt more like Groundhog Day than Christmas last week. Continued selling in Treasuries pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to yet another four-month high. It closed at 3.80% on Thursday. This has everyone talking about the yield curve (the difference between the yield on the 2-year and 10-year notes). On Tuesday it hit a record high, indicating to many that economic recovery is on the way. Investors are deserting the safety of government debt and heading for riskier Wall Street investments.

Treasuries are headed for their worst monthly performance since January, and could be hit by further losses next week. Traders and analysts are already fretting over a $118 billion in notes going on the auction block at a time when extremely light trading could kill demand for government debt. Treasuries got pounded last week, in spite of a mixed bag of economic reports that began with a big increase in existing home sales for November. Sales rose 7.4% to an annual rate of 6.54 million units. Analysts, however, attributed some of the increase to first-time buyers who wanted to cash in on the tax credit, thinking it would expire at the end of the month.
The final revision of 3rd quarter GDP was more bond-friendly. Economic growth was revised downward to 2.2% from 2.8%. The initial report showed growth of 3.5%. Less spending on business investments and consumer services like health care dragged the GDP down.

A couple of weak reports on Wednesday gave bonds their only plus day of the week -- and the gain was small. New home sales in November plunged 11.3% to an annual rate of 355,000 units, the lowest since April and far below a prediction of 421,000 units. But inventory dropped to 7.9 months.

The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey for December also came in below expectations. It fell to 72.5 from 73.8 two weeks previous, but it rose during the month from the November end index of 67.4.

Personal income in November rose 0.4% -- the best since April -- thanks to an increase in worker compensation. Spending rose 0.2% -- less than the 0.4% October increase. The core PCE, a key inflation gauge, came in at 0%, falling from 0.2% in October. This provided some good news for bond traders that fear inflation will rob fixed rate assets of value over time.
The final reports for the week didn't support Treasuries. First-time unemployment claims fell by 28,000 to 452,000 for the week ended Dec. 19. The four-week moving average also fell to 465,250. And continuing claims -- those collecting benefits for more than one week -- dropped to 5.076 million.

Orders for durable goods, big ticket items meant to last for more than three years, rose 0.2%. Excluding autos, orders were up 2.0% -- both beating October totals but falling short of analysts' expectations. During the week ended Dec. 18 it appears that more people were shopping for gifts than for mortgages. In spite of attractive rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that purchase applications fell 11.6% and refinances were down 10.1%.

This last week of the year will feature light trading and few economic indicators, although there are a couple that could influence the markets. Probably the most influential of the reports is Tuesday's consumer confidence index for December, as reported by the Conference Board. Economists predict it will rise to 53.7 from 49.5 in November. This would put pressure on Treasuries, as spending consumers would likely push the economy forward.

The Case/Shiller report on housing prices in the nation's 20 largest cities generally has little impact on Treasuries, although Wall Street often reacts. It's expected to show October prices down 7.45% -- better than the 9.36% decline in September. Wednesday brings the Chicago Purchasing Managers Institute (PMI) index of December manufacturing conditions in the area. While it's expected to edge down to 55.6 from 56.1, any number above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. The year wraps up with first-time unemployment claims for the week ended Dec. 26. Analysts expect the number to edge down to 450,000 from 452,000, which would not have much impact on the markets.

I hope that you have a terrific week. Enjoy the last days of 2009! If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was 12/14-12/18 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that your Monday is off to a terrific start. It was another tough week for Treasuries. Mostly positive economic reports spurred selling in bonds, as traders continued to worry about an early rate. Selling sent the yield on the benchmark 10-yield, which moves in the opposite direction of price, to 3.59% -- its highest level since mid-August.

Tuesday's producer price index for November didn't sit well with traders. It rose by a stronger-than-expected 1.8%. Energy prices accounted for three-quarters of the increase, opening the door for future inflation. And the core, which eliminates food and energy prices, rose 0.5% due to the higher cost of trucks and cigarettes.

Industrial production beat expectations, rising 0.8% -- the biggest increase since August. It remains down 5.1% over the past year. But the Empire State index of December manufacturing conditions plunged to 2.55 from 23.51 when 22 was expected.

On Wednesday the consumer price index, which measures retail inflation, calmed inflation anxiety. It rose 0.4% in November and the core was unchanged from October. But once again there were signs that the housing market is recovering. Building permits in November rose to an annual rate of 584,000 from 551,000, while housing starts jumped by 47,000 to an annual rate of 574,000 units.

That afternoon the Federal Reserve once again said that interest rates will be "exceptionally low" for an "extended period of time." It did note, however, that although economic conditions will remain weak, they are stabilizing, with housing and consumer spending on the rise. It noted that the labor market and businesses continue to struggle. In the end, there was little reaction from the financial markets.

Not so on Thursday. First-time unemployment claims for the week ended Dec.12 rose by 7,000 to 480,000, while the more-accurate four-week average fell for the 15th straight week. Continued claims, those collecting benefits for more than one week, also rose to 5.186 million.

Two strong reports followed: leading economic indicators, or LEI, and the Philly Fed index of December manufacturing conditions. LEI rose 0.9%, and for the first time since December 2007 employment did not negatively impact the index. The Philly Fed jumped to 20.4, its highest level since April 2005. These reports spurred selling in bonds.

But the rise in initial claims, another credit downgrade for Greece and the Fed's cautious outlook for economic recovering prompted a big sell-off on Wall Street and the flight to quality was on. The 10-year yield fell below 3.50% for the first time in a week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications to refinance rose 0.9% for the week ended Dec. 12, and accounted for 75.2% of all mortgages -- the highest percentage since April 24. Purchase apps edged down 0.1%.

This week features another three-day release calendar, but big moves are not on the radar. And trading should be light.

Tuesday's first report is the final 3rd quarter revision of GDP. Analysts expect growth to come in at 2.7% -- down a hair from the previous 2.8% revision. GDP prices are expected to show a 0.5% increase, which would be unchanged.

Existing home sales for November are expected to support the theory of a housing market rebound. Sales should rise to an annual rate of 6.30 million units, up from 6.10 million.

Wednesday's report on new home sales for November should follow suit. Sales are expected to rise by 10,000 units to an annual rate of 440,000.

Personal income for November is predicted to rise 0.5% from the previous 0.2% increase. However, personal spending should rise 0.7%, the same as in October.

Separately, the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment survey for December is expected to climb to 73.9 from 73.4. Two weeks ago the index shocked traders when it rose 6 points, sending Treasury prices tumbling.

Thursday's initial claims report for the week ended Dec. 19 could sway Treasuries if it shows another big increase in initial claims. Or not.

The final report, durable goods orders for November, is predicted to improve from October. Orders are forecast to rise 0.4% versus a 0.6% decline, while orders, excluding transportation, should increase 1.0% -- far better than the previous1.3% decline.

I hope you have a terrific week. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 17, 2009

Good Afternoon,


Mortgage Bonds started the day sharply higher after Initial Jobless Claims rose higher than expected. Upon hearing the news, investors shifted money from Stocks to Bonds--which helped Mortgage Bonds improve dramatically

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve reiterated that its Mortgage Backed Security purchase program will end in March as scheduled.

For now, I recommend floating to see if Bonds can gain some additional ground before facing a ceiling of resistance at the 50-day Moving Average. I will let you know if a change of course is needed. Have a great rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 16, 2009

Good Afternoon,

I hope that your are having a terrific day so far. Today at 2:15pm ET, the Federal Reserve will release their Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement. The Fed isn’t expected to change the Fed Funds Rate, but the statement could influence the markets. If the Fed reaffirms that rates will remain low for an extended period, Bonds could see a nice move higher.

In other news, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was reported in line with expectations, signaling that inflation remains low for now. Housing Starts for November were also in line with estimates while Building Permits, which are a leading indicator of housing construction, reached the highest level seen in the past year.

Bonds are attempting to remain above a key support level. I recommend floating but I will let you know if the Fed’s statement or other news of the day requires a change of course. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy the rest of your day. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 14, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that this note finds you well and that your week is off to a terrific start already.

In the markets today, Bonds are starting the week near unchanged and attempting to stabilize after a couple weeks of price losses. There are no economic reports due for release today, but the rest of the week is loaded up with reports, including the Fed Meeting and Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday.

In other news, the House of Representatives passed the HR 4173 bill on Friday, otherwise known as the Wall Street Reform Act and Consumer Protection Act. The bill will now be voted on by the Senate. If it passes as is, it could have a big impact on inflation and interest rates in the future.

I recommend floating for now as Bonds approach a key ceiling of resistance. I'll let you know if we need to change course. In the meantime, I hope you have a great rest of your Monday. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Letter to Clients, December 2009

I hope that this note finds you well and enjoying a truly rewarding holiday season so far this year. As we approach the end of 2009 and look towards 2010, I wanted to take just a moment to reach out to you as your trusted mortgage advisor and let you know of a potential extra tax deductible incentive available to you, if you happen to itemize your deductions on your tax return. That incentive is to pay your mortgage payment for January 2010 so that it is received by our office on, or prior to, 12/31/2009.

As you may recall, the mortgage payment due for January 2010 would include interest for the month of December 2009, as mortgage interest is always paid one month in arrears. By paying it this year, you'll have 13 months' worth of mortgage interest to write off for calendar year 2009. You can apply this same prepayment opportunity with a vacation or second home too. Many clients have used this opportunity to pay extra to another creditor in January, since the mortgage payment has already been made for the month. Whatever choice you make, I just wanted to make sure you were aware of this option. I really appreciated the opportunity to partner with you on our mortgage and this is just yet another way that I will say “thank you” for allowing me to be of help to you.

As always, if you have any questions about this email, or just want to say "Hello", I'm always here to serve you. Thanks again for your loyal business and referrals. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know. In the meantime, here’s to a terrific 2010 for you.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- December 1, 2009

Good Morning,

Happy December! Here's hoping that the month is off to a terrific start for you.

In the markets today, Mortgage Bonds are slightly lower this morning, while Stocks have moved higher.

In other news, the Pending Home Sales report came in better than expected, and the Institute of Supply Manager's Index was reported slightly lower than expected. Thus far, the reports have not impacted Bonds.

Currently, Bond prices remain overbought, as they have for the past few weeks. I recommend floating for now to see how prices behave near the current ceiling of resistance, but be prepared to lock if they move lower. If circumstances warrant a change of course, I will certainly let you know. In the meantime, I truly hope that you have a great rest of your day ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- The Week That Was -- 11/23-11/27, 2009

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a terrific Thanksgiving Holiday. Here's a look back at what happened in the markets last week and a look ahead to this week's newsmakers that could move the markets.

U.S. Treasuries had another good week, in spite of some positive economic news. But buying turned fierce early Friday when Dubai World, that country's financial arm that is responsible for funding the massive construction efforts in that country, said it may have to postpone meeting its $60 billion worth of financial obligations. Asian markets tumbled, and money headed to the safe haven of Treasuries, sending the 10-year note yield, which moves inversely to price, tumbling to its lowest level since June. Occurrences such as this, however, are generally a temporary reaction to a monetary crisis.

The week began on an up note, with existing home sales in October rising 10.1% to an annual rate of 6.10 million units -- the most since February 2007. This put pressure on Treasuries, but they rebounded when St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said the Fed should continue its stimulus programs beyond current plans.

Tuesday's report on preliminary 3rd quarter GDP also boosted Treasuries, as it was revised downward to 2.8% growth from 3.5%, due to weakness in consumer spending. Traders weren't bothered by a rise in consumer confidence in November which climbed to 49.5 from 48.7.

Wednesday was the big day for reports, starting with first-time jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 21. They fell to 466,000 -- the first time below 500,000 in more than a year. Continued claims also came in at a lower-than-expected 5.42 million. In addition, the final consumer sentiment survey for November from the University of Michigan rose to 67.4 from 66.
New home sales rose 6.2% in October, boosted by a 23.2% increase in the south. The annual rate jumped to 430,000 units, supply fell to 6.7 months and the median price rose to $212,200 -- $1,000 below last year. Another report showed personal spending up 0.6% in October, while disposable income rose 0.2%. Separately, October durables goods orders for October came in below expectations -- down 0.6% and down 1.3% when transportation was excluded.

Although the durable goods report was the only bond-friendly report of the five, a record auction of 7-year notes rallied Treasuries in the afternoon, sending the 10-year yield plunging. Strong auctions on Monday and Tuesday also resulted in heavy demand for bonds on those days.

Despite low mortgage rates, applications for refinancing fell for the week ended Nov. 20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Refis were off 9.5%, while purchase applications rose 9.6%.

This week could be a good one for bonds, if economists' expectations hold up -- until Friday, that is. The November employment report could undo previous gains. Economists are expecting job losses to fall to 120,000 from 190,000 in October, the fewest since October 2008. This would typically prompt selling in Treasuries, as traders will likely worry that economic recovery and rate hikes could come sooner than expected.

This week begins with Today's Chicago PMI index on November manufacturing conditions, which are expected to fall to 53 from 54.2. This decline could be reinforced Tomorrow by the ISM index of national manufacturing conditions. It's predicted to fall to 54.8 from 55.7. These numbers would support bonds, as recovery in manufacturing is key to an economic turnaround. Separately, construction spending in October is expected to tumble -0.4% from the previous 0.8% increase.

The Fed's beige book, due Wednesday, has market-moving potential. If it shows signs of economic recovery in most of the nation's 12 federal districts, that could spur selling in bonds. Indications of economic weakness, however, would have the opposite effect.

First-time unemployment claims for the week ended Nov. 28 are expected to rise to 483,000 from 466,000, while continuing claims should increase to 5.54 million from 5.42 million. This could prop up buying in Treasuries.

The other reports due generally have less impact. The ISM index on the service sector should edge up to 51.4 from 50.6. And revised productivity in the 3rd quarter is expected to decline to 8.5% from the previous 9.5% reading.

In addition to Friday's employment report, factory orders for October will be released. They are expected to show a 0.2% gain. While still positive, this is far lower than the previous 0.9% increase.

I hope that you have a great week ahead. If there is ever anything that I can do for you, please let me know.

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Special Letter to Clients

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a fabulous Thanksgiving weekend with Family and Friends. I wanted to take just a quick moment to update you on mortgage rates. They dropped again last week, back to near their lowest levels that we saw at the beginning of the year. This rate opportunity is so tremendous that I wanted to make sure you knew where rates were on the most popular type of loans in case you or one of your loved ones is in need of assistance or has been holding out on moving forward on a new home purchase. Don't forget, President Obama's plan allows for these same rates as well and potentially up to 125% financing of the balance (no cash back) based on appraised value (once the loan amount exceeds 95% there are rate adjusters added). So if an appraised value might be a concern, there could potentially be options through this program as well.

Here are some rate examples on a new home purchase, as well as a no cash back refinance, for the most popular loan programs, as of the close of business on Friday, 11/27/09:

30 Year Fixed: As Low as 4.5%
15 Year Fixed: As Low as 4.25%
10 Year Fixed: As low as 4.25%
5 Year ARM: As Low as 3.75%
7 Year ARM: As Low as 4.0%

Again, these rates will stay this low for too long, so if you or someone you know could benefit from this information, I would be happy to go through a free, no obligation review of the options and solutions I would have available to help them meet their goals.

In the meantime, I hope that you have a great week ahead!

YOUR Mortgage Minute -- Why are Rates Still So Low?

Good Morning,

I hope that you had a fabulous Thanksgiving. One of the questions that came up during conversations with friends and family in my neck of the woods is the disbelief that mortgage rates are still so low! I thought I would take a moment to give you a little more insight into that:

With Wall Street unsure about the economy's path, investors look to our nation's central bankers for guidance.

The Federal Reserve has made several points clear:

-- The economy shows tell-tale signs of improvement

-- Unemployment threatens the recovery

-- Inflation pressures are low, for now

Overall, the Fed Minutes from their previous meeting paint the economy as in a state of measured repair, and under tight federal surveillance. Investors like this message and, as a result, stock and bonds markets are improving.

If you haven't checked mortgage rates lately, make a point to do that. In the wake of the Federal Reserve Minutes, conforming mortgage rates are now hovering near their all-time lows set exactly 1 year ago. I hope that you have a great rest of your day. If you have any questions, please let me know. In the meantime, if there is ever anything that I can do for you, please feel free to reach out.